Africa Economics Update South Africa: Painful budget prioritises smaller deficit South Africa’s budget suggests that President Cyril Ramaphosa is putting a renewed emphasis on narrowing the fiscal deficit. We think that the shortfall will narrow in the short term, but that the... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Make-up of ECB Council shifting to the hawkish side Luis de Guindos, who is set to replace Vítor Constâncio as the ECB’s Vice President this June, may well be less dovish than his predecessor. What’s more, his appointment makes it more likely that arch... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) & Public Finances (Jan.) Although unemployment rose in December, employment continued to grow strongly and the surveys suggest that this pace of growth will be sustained in the coming months. Meanwhile, government borrowing... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that net flows to EMs turned positive in January for the first time since April last year, but subsequent market moves suggest that we are likely to have seen a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Dec.) Job creation failed to meet economist’s expectations in December. Combined with a rise in the participation rate, that contributed to the first increase in the unemployment rate since August 2016. Yet... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) Despite falling in February, the euro-zone Composite PMI remained at a high level and consistent with continued healthy GDP growth in early 2018. This might encourage the ECB to signal before long... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation to fall further and stay low The drop in Egyptian inflation over the past six months has largely reflected the unwinding impact from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016. But there are a couple of additional reasons to think that... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) The rise in wage growth in the fourth quarter may be the first real sign that wages are benefiting from the recent strength of jobs growth. But real wages have been stagnant for two years. And the... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weaker dollar is here to stay After depreciating by almost 10% in trade-weighted terms since the beginning of 2017, we suspect that the dollar is set to remain relatively stable over the next few years. The depreciation already... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How vulnerable is the dollar to a growing US twin deficit? 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Strong demand to support US natural gas prices US natural gas prices should rise this year as domestic demand and LNG exports experience an upsurge. However, a jump in supply will limit the increase in prices. 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Another ugly first quarter? The early activity data for January have come in below expectations, raising the possibility that economic growth may once again disappoint in the first quarter. Both industrial production and... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the growth of manufacturing output may have slowed a bit at the start of the year. But the big picture remains that the sector is still performing... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rebound is underway Nigeria’s economy finally exited recession in the middle of 2017, but growth remained very weak. The latest figures, however, suggest that the economy accelerated going into the start of this year... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian bond yields likely to fall further The Central Bank of Egypt embarked on an easing cycle last week and we expect inflation and interest rates to fall by more than most anticipate over the next couple of years. Accordingly, the recent... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
