Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) Brazilian inflation was unchanged in the first half of February, but we still expect the headline rate to drift up over the course of this year. Our sense is that this should prevent Copom from... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts The IPF consensus has pushed up its forecast for all-property total returns this year, reflecting a less pessimistic outlook for rental growth. But in 2019 and 2020 a gradual upward drift in yields is... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is the rally in coal prices burning out? Coal prices have fallen back a little since the start of this year as temperatures increased and supply picked up, but they remain high. This Energy Watch examines the outlook for demand and supply... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Why Africa won’t be the next EM powerhouse African economies entered a cyclical upturn last year, and we think that they will outperform consensus expectations in 2018 and 2019. But their long-term outlook is less rosy than that of many... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to push back guidance on rate rises In light of weak inflation data earlier this week and the dovishness of today’s Riksbank minutes, we expect the Bank to signal at April’s meeting that it will raise interest rates later than its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Time to worry about the weak peso? A low level of foreign currency debt in the Philippines means the recent weakness of the peso is not a major concern. In fact, despite the current worries about rising inflation, policymakers appear... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM assets vulnerable to further falls in US equities The recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) equities after the US stock market slumped reiterated how exposed they are to movements in developed market equities. Although EM equities have since... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the interest-only loan market nearing a precipice? There has been a renewed focus in recent weeks on interest-only loans in Australia and the potential risk that these loans present to financial stability, particularly given a large portion of... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: will new central bank boss herald a policy shift? The recent changeover at the helm of Tunisia’s central bank has raised hopes of a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. But the new governor is likely to run in to resistance from the government... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone’s trade imbalances are just in remission The peripheral euro-zone countries have improved their competitiveness and eliminated their big current account deficits. But we think that they will struggle to maintain this improvement. And at the... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week. However, this was mainly due to a drop in net imports which are notoriously volatile. As such, we think that stocks could rebound in the coming weeks, which... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is the fall in the Baltic Dry Index cause for concern? The recent slump in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) may mean that demand for bulk commodities has softened, with negative implications for prices. But the relationship is far from straightforward. Indeed... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Berlin’s construction boom topple rental values? Strong occupier demand and higher rents have helped to lift Berlin’s office development pipeline. On its own, the current level of construction is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in rental growth... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors become less positive on metals There are early signs that investor sentiment in the metals markets is deteriorating, although more so for industrial metals than precious. Some of the technical indicators that we monitor have... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The pause in the decline in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of February masks the fact that core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The central bank is likely to... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
