Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish surveys suggest rise in core inflation is on its way Two widely-watched survey-based measures of price expectations in Poland hit seven-year highs in January, suggesting that core inflation is set to pick up markedly over the course of 2018. This... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) Despite the fall back in the headline reported sales balance, the survey still points to retail spending growth at least maintaining its current pace. And the forward-looking balances paint an upbeat... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Are the best days over for EM financial markets? After a very strong run, EM bonds, equities and currencies have all faltered recently. Although they have since bounced back a bit, we think that their best days are now over. 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Local markets unable to escape global rout Indian financial markets have not been able to escape the recent turmoil in global markets, with equities dropping sharply and the rupee weakening against the US dollar. Looking ahead, we expect... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP revealed that the economy grew by a downwardly revised 0.4% q/q in the final quarter of 2017, with annual growth revised down from 1.8% to 1.7%. Encouragingly, however... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in Ifo business sentiment matches the message from other surveys that German GDP growth is nearing its peak. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bright. 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Growth slows in Q4, further weakness ahead With most countries in the region now having reported GDP figures for Q4, we estimate that aggregate growth in Emerging Asia (excluding China and India) came in at 4.4% y/y last quarter. While this... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Has the natural rate of unemployment fallen? The unemployment rate may need to fall from 5.5% currently to around 4.0% before wage growth rises significantly. This is partly due to the existing excess capacity not captured by the unemployment... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US-led recovery in global equity markets last? The US initially led the recovery in stock markets around the world from their falls of a few weeks ago. But the S&P 500 faltered a bit earlier this week, and we doubt that it will drive global... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why has the rate rise not been fully passed on? November’s rate rise has not been passed on in full to mortgage borrowers. But with swap rates up by 50bps over the last 9 months and banks’ funding costs rising, future rate hikes should elicit a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Existing home sales fell for a second consecutive month in January, leaving them 5% lower than at the start of last year. The good news is that there was a marginal pick up in the number of existing... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Relief rally in US equities will probably falter again soon 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Feb.) Preliminary PMIs point to continued strong growth in advanced economies in February and are consistent with our view that the world economy will expand at a decent pace this year. 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Firing on all cylinders The data from Emerging Europe at the start of 2018 have painted a bright picture. Our weighted average of the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities weather the equity storm Commodity prices fell in the wake of the late-January correction in equity indices. Some appreciation of the dollar also weighed on prices, although the dollar has since fallen back. That said, all... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Iceland: What went right and what might go wrong? Icelandic growth is set to hold up well with tourism booming despite the strength of the króna and with the financial imbalances that caused the previous crisis largely resolved. But inflation is a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
