Growth slows in Q4, further weakness ahead

With most countries in the region now having reported GDP figures for Q4, we estimate that aggregate growth in Emerging Asia (excluding China and India) came in at 4.4% y/y last quarter. While this was slower than the 4.7% recorded in the third quarter, it still represented the second fastest quarterly growth rate in five years. In most economies the slowdown was fairly gradual – the exceptions were Indonesia and Taiwan, where growth accelerated slightly, and Singapore, which slowed sharply. Looking ahead, while we think most economies should continue to grow at a decent pace over the coming year, we think the pace of expansion will continue to ease. The main headwind will come from the export sector. Despite the decent outlook for the global economy, the recent surge in export volumes looks unsustainable. Meanwhile, domestic demand is also likely to struggle in many places, further weighing on prospects.