Europe Economics Weekly Will the slowdown in domestic demand be sustained? Data released this week confirmed that the euro-zone economy finished 2017 on a strong footing. But the composition of growth shifted markedly in the second half of last year, with net trade making a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to drift higher We expect inflation in Brazil to drift higher in the coming months, reaching just over 4% y/y by the end of this year. This won’t cause a major headache for policymakers but, despite the dovish tone... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are Rest of UK office rents pulling their weight? The subdued performance of office rents in Scotland, the West Midlands, and the North East is weighing on the Rest of UK aggregate. Yet, these regions aside, there is clear evidence that the recovery... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) With real incomes under pressure from weak nominal pay growth and above-target inflation, it isn’t surprising that high-street spending growth has continued to lose momentum. But the worst of the real... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor More markets looking overvalued Although there was little movement in government bond yields and equity dividend yields in Q4, further declines in property yields mean that valuations have generally worsened this quarter. Over 40%... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect The Egyptian central bank’s easing cycle, which started last night, is likely to result in larger interest rate cuts than most anticipate. We expect an additional 650bp of rate cuts by the end of 2019... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth slowed from 2.3% y/y in Q3 to a weaker-than-expected 1.6% y/y in Q4, but we still expect the economy to recover over the course of this year. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in Greek yields dents hopes of clean bailout exit Greece has made further encouraging progress towards exiting its bailout recently. But the latest rise in bond yields highlights its vulnerability to changes in financial market sentiment and suggests... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Would more market turmoil lift the dollar against other majors? 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will first-time buyers stay away in 2018? The decline in the first-time buyer share, to a two-year low, over the second half of last year reflected a lack of starter homes for sale, rather than a demand deficiency. With the lumber price at 14... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in January isn't a huge surprise following the rapid growth at the end of last year. Along with the weaker retail sales data released yesterday, however... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss franc really overvalued? Although the franc has strengthened in recent weeks, the big picture is that the currency is over 5% weaker than this time a year ago. Currency valuation measures paint a mixed picture but our view is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Can the rise in Lisbon office rents continue? Last year, prime office rents in Lisbon recorded their strongest gain since the financial crisis. While occupier conditions are set to stay landlord friendly, slower employment growth and higher... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Market turmoil fails to derail Egypt’s dollar bond sale Egypt defied the recent turmoil in global financial markets and issued $4bn of international bonds earlier this week. The sale was three times oversubscribed and the issuance was split into three... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has rental growth in London reached a floor? Affordability for renters in the capital is close to a record low. This has already put a dent in tenant demand, causing rents to stagnate last year. There may be some signs that rental supply is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
