Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s small fall in German investor sentiment was unsurprising against a backdrop of falling equity prices and a strong euro. The fact that the majority of investors expect economic conditions to... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s drop in Swedish inflation was entirely due to changes in the weights used to calculate the price index. While inflation looks set to be lower in 2018 than we previously anticipated, the... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US tariffs on steel and aluminium appear inevitable The price of US steel has already benefited from the prospect of heightened protectionism in the US. Indeed, prices could actually fall back if President Trump decides to moderate his actions to... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) Russian activity data for January show that, having slowed over the second half of last year, the economy has now turned the corner. It looks like growth picked up to about 1.3% y/y last month from 1... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities spring back The prices of most commodities rose this week, helped by a depreciation of the US dollar and a revival in global equity prices. Industrial metals, in particular, posted some large gains, although... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deadlock in negotiations next week? Given that the UK Government has disagreements with the EU over the scope of the transition deal, and no new solutions to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland have been proposed, there is a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The strong rise in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February may be the first sign of the boost to consumers from lower taxes and suggests that, even if consumption growth slows... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should rising domestic inflationary pressure worry the MPC? Inflation proved unexpectedly sticky in January, remaining unchanged at 3.0%, contrary to the consensus expectation for it to fall. However, we don’t think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) At first glance it appears that housing starts had a very strong start to the year. The 9.7% m/m jump in January more than reversed December’s decline. But the volatile multifamily sector was... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the recent fall in oil prices a taste of things to come? Surging supply and slowing demand growth are likely to push the global market back into a small surplus in 2018 which should put further downward pressure on oil prices over the next two years... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pick-up in inflation is the real deal The January consumer price data were the clearest sign yet that inflationary pressures are beginning to build. While inflation was boosted by a rebound in clothing prices and a recovery in vehicle... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation to remain muted Global bond markets have been shaken by the recent run of stronger wage and price inflation figures in the US. Although we have long expected that a rebound in core inflation south of the border would... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Sluggish start to the year for retailers It is always a challenge to get a proper reading of the underlying strength of consumer spending growth around this time of year, with changing seasonal sales patterns (including the introduction of... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Prospects for iron ore remain grim The price of iron ore has been remarkably stable recently despite a slump in Chinese steel prices. In this Metals Watch, we make the case that the market is factoring in too much optimism about demand... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
