Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Dec.) Although our New Zealand Activity Proxy declined in December, the decent rise over the fourth quarter as a whole suggests that GDP growth accelerated at the end of last year. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Cabinet consensus won’t unlock negotiations The “Canada plus, plus, plus” deal, including single market participation for some sectors, which UK Cabinet ministers reportedly agreed to this week is unlikely to be accepted by the EU in its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Sentiment sours in the metals markets The prices of most precious and industrial metals fell back this week in the wake of a small appreciation of the US dollar. The FOMC minutes, released on Wednesday, all but ensured another US rate... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rising supply should boost stocks in 2018 Stocks of copper and aluminium have risen strongly since the start of 2018, but inventories of the other base metals have fallen. Supply was tight in the smaller markets last year, but it is now... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade carries over momentum into 2018 Global trade volumes grew by 4.5% in 2017 as a whole – the fastest rate of annual growth in five years, and faster than the 3.7% expansion in global GDP. Encouragingly, the signs are that world trade... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending losing momentum There are some tentative signs that the past tightening in mortgage rules and increase in interest rates are beginning to have an impact beyond housing by negatively impacting household spending too... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Narrowing in spread tempers rise in mortgage rates The impact of higher Treasury yields on mortgage rates has been softened by a narrowing of the spread between the two. That reflects a fall in the option cost of prepayment risk, as higher mortgage... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cabinet consensus won’t unlock negotiations The “Canada plus, plus, plus” deal, including single market participation for some sectors, which UK Cabinet ministers reportedly agreed to this week is unlikely to be accepted by the EU in its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will a growing twin deficit drive the dollar even lower? The dollar’s weakness in the face of tighter Fed policy is reminiscent of the mid-2000s. At the time, interest rates and bond yields also moved in favour of the US, but its currency was dragged down... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Near-term outlook bright, but tougher times lie ahead With the economy set to receive an additional fiscal boost following the recent deal in Congress to raise the discretionary spending caps, we are revising up our GDP growth forecasts for both this... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could the Phillips Curve be L-shaped? Some economists have been considering whether, having been stubbornly low for years, wage inflation may take off as the world reaches full employment. This Update considers why this might occur. 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) The small decline in the headline inflation rate to 1.7% in January, from 1.9%, mainly reflects a drop in gasoline price inflation due to base effects. The Bank of Canada’s three preferred core... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Time to throw in the towel on growth? (No) Recent news on the UK economy, including the downward revision to Q4 GDP growth, appears to have lent more support to the consensus forecast of slower growth in 2018 than to our prediction of an... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still setting the scene for cautious, gradual normalisation The minutes of the ECB’s January meeting indicated just how cautiously the Bank wants to communicate and carry out its monetary policy normalisation. The ECB looks set to revisit its forward guidance... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will mortgage rates spike when the TFS ends? The Term Funding Scheme did little to lower mortgage pricing, and its withdrawal could pass with little discernible effect. But by boosting lenders’ marginal funding costs, the end of the TFS does... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
