China Economics Update Equity markets stabilise on state support Chinese stock markets have edged up recently following a slump in early February, likely supported by state buying. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar has weakened against the US dollar and may soon run... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will rising bond yields undermine equities again? The correction in global equities earlier this month coincided with a further rise in US Treasury yields, as higher inflation and the prospect of extra fiscal stimulus led investors to conclude that... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A rebound in net imports drove crude stocks higher last week. Admittedly, imports are volatile so this could be reversed this week. But US oil production also resumed its upward trend and demand for... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat is Italy’s election? Italy’s general election on Sunday 4th March seems likely to result in a government that pushes for a small fiscal stimulus, largely centred on tax cuts. But we doubt that this would provide much of a... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Appetite for international bond sales remains strong International bond markets have been inundated with debt issuance from frontier markets over the past couple of years and there’s no sign yet that appetite is waning. Since the start of this year... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish consumer spending to remain strong … for now We think that the near-term outlook for consumer spending in Poland is bright. A further acceleration in wage growth – together with loose fiscal policy and record-high consumer confidence – should... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Sweden be the canary in the coalmine? With transaction volumes having fallen sharply last year and domestic investors looking further afield for value, stretched valuations in Sweden are likely to mean that prime yields have found a floor... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Today’s national accounts data show that India’s GDP growth accelerated to a five-quarter high in Q4 2017. The data are much-maligned, but the broad trajectory of a pick-up in growth seems reasonable... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy cycles nearing turning points Monetary policy cycles across the region are nearing turning points. In most cases this means that easing cycles are drawing to a close and, as markets start to consider the eventual onset of monetary... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: US equity correction outweighs political drama The market impact of February’s political drama in South Africa was limited; investors had already priced in Jacob Zuma’s February 14th resignation. Instead, moves in markets across Africa were mostly... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong to cool in 2018 Hong Kong’s economy ended last year on a fairly strong note, supported by buoyant exports. But we think growth will slow over the quarters ahead. The expansionary budget unveiled today will provide... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in headline inflation does not change our view that the ECB will drop the easing bias from its forward guidance at its meeting on 8th March. But with core inflation still weak and... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q4) Sweden, Finland and Denmark all grew strongly in Q4 last year. While growth in Sweden and Finland is likely to outpace that in Demark in 2018, the big picture is that the outlook for each economy is... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence edged back down in February, but the big picture remains that consumers are still weathering the squeeze on their spending power relatively well. 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack A patchy start to the year All things considered, January was a fairly mixed month for the economic and property market data. That said, the recent falls in risk-free rates and the exchange rate should both give some support... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
