Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.) & Swedish Production (Jan.) The further decline in Swiss inflation in February to a five-month low will add to the Swiss National Bank’s caution ahead of its monetary policy meeting next week. Indeed, subdued inflation is likely... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA repeats that progress on inflation will be gradual The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the 17 th consecutive meeting and it noted once again that progress in returning inflation to target is likely to be “gradual”... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan.) & GDP Partials (Q4) Today’s data releases suggest that GDP growth was a touch stronger than we had expected in the fourth quarter of last year. That said, the smaller than anticipated rise in retail sales in January... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update After Italy’s election, what happens next? The lengthy political uncertainty that seems likely to follow Italy’s election is unlikely on its own to do much economic damage. But we suspect that the prospect of looser fiscal policy, higher debt... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Trade spat not (yet) a big deal for global growth President Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium does not pose an immediate threat to the world economy. Together they account for only a small share of world trade, and we... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with clients and local contacts in Bogotá. In this Update, we summarise four key takeaways from our visit. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worrying are Trump’s tariffs for the euro-zone? The direct macroeconomic effects of President Trump’s proposed tariffs on EU exports would be very small. However, if this signals the beginning of a bigger shift towards US protectionism, followed by... 5th March 2018 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt worries building Kenya’s public debt load is not particularly large, but the recent run-up in debt is clearly not sustainable. Our core view is that the government will tighten policy and that the debt burden will... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Renewed boom in productivity remains elusive Following a decade when productivity growth averaged barely 1% per year, we anticipate a modest acceleration to 1.5% over the next few years, principally because the low unemployment rate, rising... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Low rental yields in the West not yet a risk for prices Single-family rental yields have been declining in most states over the past six years, with strong house price gains in the West leading to relatively large yield drops there. With interest rates on... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jan.), PMIs (Feb.) & Greek GDP (Q4) The recent softness of euro-zone retail sales is probably due to temporary factors and surveys bode well for the outlook. Meanwhile, the Greek economy finished last year on a weak note. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Feb.) The rise in the services PMI in February will help to assuage fears of a broad-based slowdown in Q1, instead suggesting that the economy has broadly maintained its pace. That should keep the door open... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s PMI readings for the Gulf suggest that the imposition of austerity measures at the start of this year is still weighing on non-oil sectors in the region. But we think that the impact will... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The slightly stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data for February, of 10.3% y/y, means the MPC is likely to stick to its hawkish tone at Wednesday’s MPC meeting. Inflation should begin to edge... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Italy’s election, what happens next? The lengthy political uncertainty that seems likely to follow Italy’s election is unlikely on its own to do much economic damage. But we suspect that the prospect of looser fiscal policy, higher debt... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
