Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Jan.) Large declines in energy output as a result unseasonably-warm temperatures explain much of the weakness in industrial production across the euro-zone in January. Meanwhile, the business surveys remain... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a trade war mean for Asia? Developments in the past couple of weeks point to the risk of trade policy in the US becoming much more protectionist. Given its huge bilateral trade surplus with the US, China is likely to be the... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation rose sharply last month after a fall in January, boosted by a New Year-driven rebound in food price inflation. We think a further rise in food inflation will keep the headline... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why aren’t Australians working harder? The slump in the annual rate of productivity growth to a 22-year low of -1.0% in the fourth quarter suggests that Australian’s aren’t working very hard and that this will damage their prosperity in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Are interest rate rises in Switzerland in sight? In an environment of global uncertainty, the Swiss National Bank will be wary of exacerbating any upward pressure on the safe haven franc when it meets on 15th March. Admittedly, its forecast for... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for the Andes? We expect recoveries in Colombia, Chile and Peru to continue over the coming years as investment strengthens and consumer spending picks up. There are downside risks to the outlook – namely large... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Loosening bias gone, but tightening is some way off The ECB’s decision to remove the loosening bias from its monetary policy statement today was arguably the first step along a path of policy normalisation. But note that its balance sheet will continue... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could NAFTA talks impact energy commodities? Whilst we do not think that the renegotiation of NAFTA is likely to have a significant impact on demand for most energy commodities, the possibility of more protectionist measures and the subsequent... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further drop in Mexican inflation in February was encouraging, and the breakdown contains signs of broad disinflation pressures – core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update No sign of a revival in development activity Development activity is now much more muted than in the run up to the EU referendum suggesting that, while rents and capital values have recovered from the result, developers are still choosing to err... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead to remain under pressure Dwindling mine supply and, more recently, strong winter demand for car replacement batteries have given a boost to the price of lead. However, demand is weakening which, coupled with increasing... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No need for concern over China’s February imports China’s commodity import volumes fell back sharply in February, but this can probably be explained by the week-long New Year holiday which fell in the middle of the month. The bigger picture is that... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: early signs that strong demand is leaking into imports Q4 GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) confirmed that last year’s pick-up in regional growth was driven by an improvement in consumer spending and investment. However... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: austerity to gather pace to cap debt Public debt-to-GDP ratios in Bahrain and Oman are on a worrying path and we expect the pace of austerity to be stepped up over the coming years to slow the rise in debt. However, that will come at the... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month, to 14.4% y/y, should be enough to persuade the central bank to cut interest rates by a further 100bp at its monetary policy meeting this month... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
