US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has begun to gather pace but is still having next to no impact on the monetary aggregates, suggesting that the effect on the broader economy will also be small... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity producers on the mend GDP data for 2017 revealed a widespread improvement in growth in key EM commodity producers last year. While we are relatively downbeat on the medium-term prospects for most of these economies, we... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the PMIs getting it wrong? Markit’s PMIs have recently pointed to faster economic growth than the official data show, once again raising questions about their accuracy. However, even if they are currently over-stating growth a... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Retailer closures highlight sector's woes Bad news for the retail sector made almost as many headlines as the snow last week. The easiest conclusion would be to blame online competition. However, there are reasons to think that firm-level... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation figures for February confirmed that underlying price pressures remain weak and another cut in the central bank’s policy interest rate at the next Board meeting later this month is... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Nickel: no shortage in sight Strong growth in China’s stainless steel output and supply disruptions have buoyed nickel prices so far this year. In this Metals Watch, we take a look at the most recent developments in both demand... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The fall in Brazilian industrial production in January was largely payback for an especially strong outturn in December – we still expect the industrial recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Headwinds loom for Moscow office rents A tightening office market bodes well for prime rents in Moscow. But with poor demographics and unemployment already very low, the labour market will prevent a rapid pick-up in rental growth. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effects to have lifted inflation in February Following a fall in January, consumer price inflation will probably have jumped last month to a one-year high. We expect a further rise in food price inflation to keep the headline rate elevated over... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in PMIs eases fears of continued slowdown Following a downward revision to quarterly GDP growth in Q4, from 0.5% to 0.4%, a deterioration in all three of the headline PMI balances in January raised concerns that growth had continued to slow... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth already gaining steam in late 2017 South African Q4 GDP figures were better than even our own above-consensus forecast. We expect that the economy will retain momentum in the coming quarters, and beat consensus expectations in 2018. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy moving towards recovery It looks like Saudi Arabia’s economy turned the corner in late 2017 and, while the early data from the start of this year have been disappointing, a recovery should still get underway. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would more protectionism affect the dollar? The reaction in currency markets to President Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium suggests that investors are far more concerned that the duties represent the opening salvo of a trade war... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor tentatively suggests that spending growth is turning a bit of a corner. And with the worst of the pay squeeze having passed, the outlook for growth is looking up. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Rate hikes unlikely despite rise in inflation Despite inflation rising to its highest rate in nearly four years in February, the central bank seems in little hurry to tighten monetary policy. We continue to believe that interest rates in the... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
