Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Nordic and Swiss equities continue to struggle? After a tough start to 2018, we think that equities in the Nordic countries and Switzerland will continue to struggle over the next couple of years. But their performance will be far from uniform. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market settles after rate hike Following dip in the wake of November’s interest rate rise, transactions and mortgage approvals bounced back in January. However, buyer enquiries fell and house price expectations were subdued. As a... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the trade deficit to a nine-year high of $56.6bn in January, from $53.9bn, suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter, and will only add... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A mixed month for metals The prices of metals diverged last month. The prospect of a blanket tariff on US imports led to a jump in the price of US steel. At the same time, concerns about demand, notably from China, weighed on... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The jump in mortgage applications seen in January has been quickly reversed, with total applications posting a 6.2% m/m drop in February. The rise in mortgage interest rates, which reached their... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer spending dampened by temporary factors The first breakdown of euro-zone Q4 GDP showed that consumer spending growth slowed to just 0.2%, the weakest rate since Q1 2014. Encouragingly though, this appears to have been due to temporary... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the end of PPI pay-outs hit spending growth? While it is some way off yet, some have argued that the ending of compensation related to mis-sold PPI will remove a valuable support to consumers who are facing falling real wages and higher interest... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by net exports. Timelier evidence suggests that growth is no longer accelerating, but we still expect the... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) The Halifax’s headline rate of annual house price growth slipped to below 2% in February. And with house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates now starting to rise, house price... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Feb.) China’s foreign exchange reserve figures suggest that the People’s Bank remained a minor player in the FX market last month. But its pledge to allow a more market-driven exchange rate will be tested... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Equity valuations unlikely to lend near-term support The price/forward earnings ratio of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has fallen back a touch as the index has had a bumpy start to the year. We doubt that valuations will provide any support over... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian rates to stay on hold Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today following a hike at its last meeting in January. With inflation slowing, growth likely to cool further and the currency strong... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The most encouraging aspect of the fourth-quarter GDP release was the acceleration in the various measures of income growth. Even so, we suspect that still-subdued income growth and a soft housing... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could sanctions on Venezuela impact oil prices? Even if the US imposes sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector we doubt that the impact on oil prices will be substantial. The US has already halved its imports from Caracas with no discernible effect on... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German core inflation to rise only gradually With clear signs that inflationary pressures are growing in Germany, core inflation looks set to rise. But as this will be gradual and price pressures elsewhere are subdued, it will be of little... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview – Banking the growth windfall Things seem to be going the Chancellor’s way at the moment (for a change). Not only did GDP grow more strongly in 2017 than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted, and the public... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
