Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PNB scandal highlights need for governance reforms The fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank, India’s second largest state-owned bank, is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector, including the recapitalisation package... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable is the S&P 500 to rising interest rates? The S&P 500 has tended to hold up well in the past when the Fed has tightened policy. But it has slid once the tightening has begun to take a toll on the economy. With this in mind, we don’t expect... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Growth in LNG demand to come off the boil The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market looks set to remain comfortably supplied this year, particularly as we expect growth in Asian LNG demand to slow. Given that we are also forecasting a fall in... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Spring Statement 2018 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key economic and fiscal forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Spring Statement at 12.30pm Tuesday 13th March 2018 and to provide some... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update PM Abe on the ropes again Prime Minister Abe is once again embroiled in a political scandal that raises the possibility that he could be replaced as head of the LDP, and hence as prime minister. This still seems unlikely but... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily When will tighter Fed policy undermine the US stock market? 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Strong rental demand keeps vacancy rate in check Mortgage interest rates have continued to rise, averaging 4.63% in February; their highest level since the end of 2013. But more of an issue for sales is the chronic shortage of homes for sale, which... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) The drop in consumer price inflation in February was due to another decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation remains high and could well rise further. As such, we remain comfortable with our... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: legislative elections pave way for Duque Right and centre-right parties secured the most seats in yesterday’s legislative elections in Colombia, bolstering the chances of an Iván Duque presidency and dealing a blow to left-wing candidates –... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Aramco IPO delay to have little near-term impact Reports that the initial public offering of Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, Aramco, will be delayed until next year are not a major surprise given the complexity of the transaction. The delay... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Life after the booms The economy will probably cope reasonably well even though both the mining and housing booms are over, but over the next couple of years it is unlikely to strengthen as much as policymakers hope. Over... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growing threats to Korea’s export sector The near-term outlook for Korea’s export sector remains positive, but US protectionism and Chinese competition pose growing threats to the sector. 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that, after a short period in January in which capital flowed into EMs, the emerging world experienced net capital outflows once more in February. So far, the deterioration in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU guidelines pave the way for a “Canada-style” deal Draft EU guidelines on the future relationship between the UK and the EU reiterated that the EU sees a Canada-style Free Trade Agreement as the best possible trading arrangement consistent with the UK... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising trade deficit may embolden the protectionists Following the move this week to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium, the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high in January is likely to have bolstered President Donald Trump’s... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
