UK Economics Update Negotiators set for a frantic weekend in Brussels It is widely expected that the EU Council will on Thursday confirm that the UK will enter into a transition period following its departure from the EU next March. That said, judging by the EU’s latest... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising prime-age participation a new structural trend The surge in job growth in February, which was fuelled by a rise in new entrants to the labour force, supports the doves’ view that there is still hidden slack in the labour market. But the story isn... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All quiet on the commodities front There were few large moves in commodity prices this week. China’s activity data for the first two months of the year, published on Wednesday, were reasonably strong but failed to give a material lift... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & UoM Cons. Confidence (Mar.) The strong rebound in industrial production in February was driven by an even larger gain in manufacturing output, and illustrates that the softer start to the year was just a blip. Meanwhile, the... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Middle-class families still struggling The 2016 Canadian Income Survey shows that the median household hasn’t benefitted meaningfully from economic growth in recent years. Real incomes of middle-class families have been largely stagnant... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The OBR is still too gloomy Following November’s Autumn Budget, we argued that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had become too pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth. Although the economy has performed... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The further decline in manufacturing sales volumes in January, broadly consistent with the drop in non-commodity exports already reported for that month, provides further evidence that the economy... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the ECB trying to tell us? This week has featured a raft of speeches from the ECB’s Governing Council on the outlook for monetary policy, displaying a range of views among its members. Several would clearly prefer to end asset... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) The 7.0% m/m drop in housing starts in February was not a surprise. It was driven by the multifamily sector, where a 26.1% m/m drop fully reversed a similar surge in January. More of a concern is the... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US tariff action on China would hit other EMs too Media reports suggest that the US is planning to impose more extensive tariffs on China. This could have a significant knock-on impact for a number of economies in Emerging Asia (Taiwan, Malaysia... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Latest stress test won’t derail bank lending While the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) left its annual stress test scenario unchanged, the test will still be a bit more stringent this year for some major UK banks. Nonetheless... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery to gather momentum We expect growth in most countries in Latin America to accelerate over the course of this year as the region’s cyclical recovery gathers pace. Inflation is now bottoming out and in most places it will... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q4) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data support our view that the ECB will act very patiently in normalising its monetary policy stance. Indeed, higher interest rates remain a long way off. 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Which central banks are most likely to deliver surprises? Central banks across Emerging Asia typically do a poor job at flagging up their decisions in advance, which often leads to investors being wrong-footed. Since the start of 2010, under half of interest... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi royal tour highlights reform and geopolitical risks Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known as MbS) is in the midst of a global tour, which has highlighted the challenges facing his Vision 2030 economic reforms as well as ongoing... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
