China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Capital outflows edged up slightly in February in seasonally-adjusted terms, though they remain low. The PBOC again refrained from directly intervening in FX markets last month. But with the economy... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) The batch of Polish activity data for February suggests that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace in Q1 of close to 5% y/y – broadly in line with Q4’s outturn. Rapid wage growth and looser... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Debt positions fragile in face of economic shocks Africa’s public debt problems are currently concentrated in Mozambique, Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, & Zambia. Elsewhere, however, it would only take a small shock to prompt a crisis (Kenya & South Africa... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Should we be worried about capital flows? A drop in foreign direct investment inflows and a pick-up in portfolio inflows into India has led to concerns that the economy is once again becoming vulnerable to a sudden halt in foreign financing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fed leapfrogs the RBA and RBNZ We believe the probable rise in US rates on Wednesday will mark the start of the first prolonged period since the late 1990s where interest rates in America are higher than in Australia and New... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Further falls in dwellings investment lie ahead While the recent rises in building approvals are encouraging, we doubt they are a sign that the drag on GDP growth from dwellings investment is already over. Indeed, we expect that dwellings... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Total returns set to slow throughout the region Property yield falls will be limited in Scandinavia this year as the region’s markets are looking increasingly late-cycle. The prospects are somewhat brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields can... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rental growth has peaked The upswing in euro-zone economic growth will underpin occupier demand. However, rising development will act as a headwind for rental growth. Indeed, in the office, retail and industrial sectors, we... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Home sales slump worsening The further drop in home sales last month confirms that the slowdown in trend sales that began around a year and a half ago has worsened. Unfortunately, prospective home buyers and sellers are now... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Tight markets support house price and rental growth This quarter sees the launch of a redesigned US Housing Market Analyst. The aim of the Analyst, to provide our views on the outlook for the US housing market, remains the same. However, there is now a... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Rice prices to come off the boil In this Commodities Watch, we will analyse supply and demand in the global rice market and explain why we think the price of Thai rice will struggle to hold on to its recent gains. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The outlook for bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics The Nordic central banks are all moving towards tightening monetary policy, albeit at different speeds. We think that higher interest rates will come first in Sweden, pushing up government bond yields... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) March’s sharp decline in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment highlights the risks to the economy. While Germany would be hit harder than most by a trade war, for now the outlook is positive. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Jan.) According to the Official UK House Price Index, house price pressures continued to ease in the early stages of the year. As a result, the data confirmed the picture already painted by the more timely... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) The fall-back in CPI inflation in February from 3% in January to 2.7% confirms that we have now reached a turning point, but doesn’t significantly diminish the case for a near-term interest rate hike. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
