US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Jan.) After two months of slowing house price gains, the sharp 0.8% m/m rise in January reported by the FHFA might be a sign that price growth is accelerating. But, given how volatile the monthly data are... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC still on track for a May hike While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stopped short of explicitly committing to another interest rate hike in May, the Minutes of March’s meeting suggest that it is highly likely. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts in Indonesia still likely Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged today, while also appearing to rule out further interest rate cuts. But with growth set to underperform and inflationary pressures under control, we... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Kuczynski resignation unlikely to disrupt recovery The resignation of Peruvian president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) is likely to be followed by a smooth and swift transition of power to Vice President Martín Vizcarra. And with financial conditions... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s central bank in no rush to adjust policy Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.375% against a backdrop of decent economic growth and subdued inflationary pressures. The familiar and dovish tone of the... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A weak start to 2018 South Africa’s seems to have economy slowed in January, but the weakness of recent figures was exaggerated by the comparison with a strong performance at the end of 2017. We think that growth will... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines central bank to look through inflation spike The Philippines central bank (BSP) decision to leave rates on hold today, despite this year’s jump in inflation, adds weight to our view that policy will remain on hold throughout 2018. This stands in... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Despite February’s bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales volumes, the big picture is that spending growth is still pretty sluggish. But with the real pay squeeze coming to an end, the outlook for... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q4) Housing starts bounced back in Q4, rising by 5.2% q/q. That seems consistent with reports that demand for newbuild homes is rising. Yet the wider housing market still looks fragile and builders are... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No need to fear the Fed The prospect of additional US rate hikes could weigh on commodity prices this year and will almost certainly lead to a lower gold price. But our negative outlook for industrial commodity prices is... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Mar.) March’s PMI and Ifo surveys point to a softening of euro-zone growth, which we had expected after such a strong run and which has not caused us to change our upbeat GDP forecasts. But it certainly... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities likely to fall further Indian equities have continued to drop so far in March, even as many other major stock markets have stabilised after the turbulence in February. Looking ahead, we expect Indian equities to fall a bit... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: risk of messy dinar devaluation rising Pressure is building on the Tunisian dinar and our central scenario is that the IMF will push the authorities to loosen their grip on the currency in the near future. This is likely to result in a 10%... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM credit spreads continue to rise? The spreads of emerging market (EM) sovereign dollar bonds have been edging up since their lows a couple of months ago, and we think that they have further to rise over the next two years. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal squeeze & drought to weigh on growth Recently-released Q4 GDP data confirms that economic growth in Argentina softened at the end of last year, and we expect the economy to slow further over the course of 2018 as tighter fiscal policy... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) Australia does not have a problem creating jobs, as employment continued to grow at its fastest rate in a decade in February. But there is still a lot of slack in the market that will need to be used... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
