Tunisia: risk of messy dinar devaluation rising

Pressure is building on the Tunisian dinar and our central scenario is that the IMF will push the authorities to loosen their grip on the currency in the near future. This is likely to result in a 10% drop in the currency against the euro by the end of this year. But there’s a growing risk that the authorities ignore the Fund and keep a tight grip on the dinar, leading to a more disorderly adjustment further ahead.