US Economics Weekly Fed’s new economic projections implausibly strong During his first post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell managed to signal faster rate hikes over the coming years while simultaneously calming the bond market by playing down the risks... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trump’s tariffs unsettle investors The US was the focus of markets this week. The Fed hiked its target rate by 25bp on Wednesday to 1.50%-1.75% but this had been widely anticipated and there was little reaction in commodity markets. In... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies come under pressure Most major Emerging Market currencies have fared well over the past month even as concerns of a global trade war have mounted, but a number of those in Frontier Markets have struggled. Indeed, only... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Heavy oil price benchmark likely to rebound Prices of domestic heavy crude oil appear to be going sideways, despite rising world oil prices. This trend has persisted for a few months, but there are still good reasons to believe that these heavy... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Curtain raised on future relationship negotiations As expected, on Friday the EU Council endorsed a transition period and the opening up of a new strand of negotiations on the future relationship. But unless the UK can come up with a solution to the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The 0.6% m/m drop in new home sales was marginal, but it marks the third month in a row of falling sales. However, given the relatively healthy inventory of new homes and reports from homebuilders of... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Is the DRC’s new mining code a threat to EVs? The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s decision to hike royalties on cobalt mining represents a threat to the electric vehicle industry and could accelerate the ongoing substitution with cheaper... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far and how fast will interest rates rise? With another hike in interest rates in May now largely priced into markets (and supported by this week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Minutes), the bigger question is just how “limited and gradual”... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will the new Chinese crude contract matter for prices? In our view, the new yuan-denominated crude futures contract should have no long-term impact on oil prices, even if it becomes a major benchmark. At any rate, a history of extreme volatility in China... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The rise in the annual headline and core inflation rates in February appear to be largely due to higher gasoline inflation and base year effects, things which the Bank of Canada will look through at... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The strong rise in durable goods orders in February was flattered by a rebound in transport orders, but the details showed an encouraging rebound in underlying capital goods orders. That suggests the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What does the Brexit transition deal mean for the EU? A key hurdle in securing a relatively smooth UK exit from the EU has been passed. The Brexit transition deal preserves the current economic relationship between the UK and the EU for 21 months after... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade war: economics versus markets? The economic impact of the tariffs which have been announced by the Trump administration will be small, even if they are implemented in full, and we suspect that any retaliation will be moderate. But... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle has much further to run Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina gave little away at today’s post-meeting press conference about the future path for interest rates, but her overall tone suggests that there’s scope for... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will commercial property lending pick up in 2018? A recent survey found that 72% of lenders intended to increase origination volumes for UK commercial property this year. That offers a sharp contrast to recent market conditions. Nevertheless, we... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
