Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Corporate tax cuts wouldn’t boost the economy much The Australian government’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% by 2026/27 wouldn’t be a boon for the economy for two reasons. First, the tax rate would need to be cut much further to... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nafta hopes buoy Mexican peso and bond markets Despite the clashes between the US and China on trade, some more hopeful news on Nafta talks this month has supported the Mexican peso and local currency government bonds – particularly at the long... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Protectionist clouds gather As long as they aren’t followed by far more extensive trade sanctions than have been seen to date, the protectionist clouds looming over the global economy are unlikely to have a major bearing on... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil rose last week as imports rebounded and production grew again. Admittedly, demand from refineries and consumers is strong. But we still expect soaring output to lead to higher... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could housebuilders be doing more? The gap between the number of homes granted planning permission and actual housing starts is growing. But it is labour and materials shortages, as well as a deteriorating housing market backdrop, that... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Trade spat will not deflect Fed (or BoE) from hiking We expect the Fed to raise interest rates three more times this year, and twice in 2019, but we think it will then begin to loosen policy in 2020. Other than the Bank of England, most major central... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate cut will be a one-off Today’s 25bp interest rate cut does not signal the start of a new easing cycle. We think that policymakers were attempting to seize the opportunity for a quick cut before inflation picks up later this... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is OPEC risking its own “taper tantrum”? Oil prices have surged recently, partly due to expectations that OPEC will extend its production cuts into next year. However, some members of the group are emphasising the need for an exit strategy... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Growth to slow as housing boom cools We expect GDP growth to halve from 3.0% in 2017 to 1.5% in 2018, as tighter regulation and higher borrowing costs bring the housing boom to an abrupt end. We anticipate that growth will remain weak in... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Time to buy gold? The price of gold has benefited from heightened geopolitical risk in recent weeks. While prices are likely to remain well supported in the short term as global trade worries see investors rotate out... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The impact of faster earnings growth on house prices Our forecast that earnings growth will rise to a nine-year high of 3.5% by the middle of 2019 might be expected to give house prices a boost, particularly given the lack of inventory. However, the... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The gradual contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet is now starting to weigh on the monetary aggregates. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect bank lending growth to rebound soon. 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar.) The severe weather at the start of March saw the CBI Distributive Trades Survey balances take a turn for the worse. But with the economic drivers of consumer spending finally showing signs of... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has economic growth really slowed? Large variations between the different official measures of GDP growth have left it unclear whether the UK economy accelerated or slowed following the EU referendum. And a renewed divergence between... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bounce back in activity unlikely Both the Australian and New Zealand economies failed to regain any momentum at the end of 2017 with GDP rising by a slower than expected 0.6% q/q in New Zealand and just 0.4% q/q in Australia... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
