China Economics Update Dancing to a different tune Chinese financial markets have defied global trends recently. Looser monetary conditions have pulled down the country’s bond yields since the start of the year while yields abroad were rising until... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the global economy really slowing? The recent weakness of some economic data, business surveys and equity markets has raised fears that the global expansion is now fizzling out. We think that China will slow later this year and the US... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal policy will determine future path of Brazil rates Brazil’s central bank appears to have been spooked by the weakness of the recent inflation data, but we think that the conduct of fiscal policy will ultimately have a much greater bearing on how... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Core PCE inflation to hit 2% very soon Although the annual core PCE inflation rate only edged higher to 1.6% in February there is now a good chance that base effects will push it up to 2.0% in March, leaving it in line with the Fed’s... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A quiet week for commodities Commodity markets took something of a breather this week after last week’s sharp moves. Fears of a trade war between the US and China have receded a little, which helped to stabilise prices. The... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Taking stock of the first quarter In this Commodities Watch, we review developments in the first quarter of this year and draw conclusions about what they mean for our price forecasts. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic strength keeps French fiscal reform on track Positive fiscal data have been something of a rarity in France in recent years, so President Emmanuel Macron will have welcomed the news earlier this week that the French budget deficit for 2017 was... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers relying on saving less The news on the state of households’ finances shows that recent spending growth has been partly driven by households saving less. But it should not be long before consumer spending is on a firmer... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly First-quarter slowdown all about consumption The incoming activity data suggest that GDP growth slowed from an upwardly-revised 2.9% annualised in the fourth quarter to 2.0% or so in the first quarter. That would still be slightly above the... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s household borrowing figures showed that, following a small decline over the course of 2017, unsecured credit growth has stabilised. This suggests that consumers are continuing to take... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Tougher times may lie ahead for the IT sector Equities have had a tough time over the past month, with the information technology (IT) sector in the US hit particularly hard since mid-March. The poor performance of the IT sector cannot be pinned... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The decline in monthly GDP in January was partly due to interruptions in the oil & gas industry and the recent slump in home sales, something which we fear could mark the start of a potentially... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities down on protectionist fears Fears of a trade war between the US and China have weighed on Asian equities over the past month. In contrast, currency markets have been largely unaffected. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Blockbuster first quarter for employment We estimate that payroll employment expanded by 250,000 in March, as the disruption from the recent flu epidemic faded. That should push the unemployment rate down to 4.0%, an 18-year low. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s increase in German consumer price inflation reflected a rebound in the volatile food and energy components. The headline rate remains low, at 1.5%, and there is still limited evidence of a... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
