Europe Chart Pack Lending data add to evidence that growth has peaked Euro-zone money and lending growth slowed in February, adding to the evidence from the official data and business surveys that economic growth has peaked. Growth in “narrow” money – which is the sum... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weakness in Colombian investment to be temporary Colombia’s economic recovery has been held back by weak investment which appears to be a result of the recent slump in the property market. But this property downturn now seems to have passed its... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Completions to take the edge off Milan rental growth Occupier demand in Milan is likely to stay healthy again this year, supporting further rental growth. But with completions expected to rise and rents close to previous highs, we don’t expect to see a... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising trade tensions increase upside risks to inflation We think consumer price inflation will have risen further last month to a fresh multi-year high, boosted by a rise in food price inflation. This probably marks the peak for inflation this year, though... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set for recovery, but consensus too optimistic The UAE’s economy should recover this year as the drag from the oil sector fades and preparations for the 2020 World Expo are stepped up. Even so, we still think that growth will be weaker than most... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Bitcoin keep moving with risky assets? Bitcoin’s correlation with equity prices has strengthened recently, but we think that this will be just temporary. We still think that Bitcoin is essentially worthless, meaning that it is likely to... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, but tighter policy on the horizon The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will prompt the central bank to raise interest rates in... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Growth: Beware talk of an “African” recovery Many analysts now talk of a recovery ‘in Africa’; but faster regional growth this year will be almost entirely due to accelerations in Nigeria & South Africa. Given weak economic links within Africa... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending made a slow start to 2018. And March’s Composite PMI implies that overall GDP growth has peaked. But we remain fairly optimistic... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Mar.) The latest Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the severe weather conditions in March held back the sector at the end of Q1. However, we don’t think that this will prevent the Monetary Policy... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Brazilian markets after Lula ruling to be limited The ruling by Brazil’s Supreme Court to imprison left-wing populist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) all but ends his bid for the presidency and throws the election race wide open. While markets are... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Have regional office yields found a floor? According to MSCI, office yields in the Rest of UK office markets have fallen far more sharply over the past year than in the Rest of South East. That has returned the yield spread between the two... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Feb.) Despite February’s rise, Swedish private sector production growth appears to have slowed in Q1. But economic growth should remain healthy this year and inflationary pressures are building, so we still... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.) The renewed rise in Swiss inflation in March will be welcomed by the Swiss National Bank. But with pipeline price pressures still very subdued, we doubt that the SNB will alter its ultra-accommodative... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb.) As Australia is more exposed than most other advanced economies to a further escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, the fall in its international trade surplus in February is... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
