Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump concerns weigh on Nordic and Swiss markets In March, equity prices and bond yields in the Nordics and Switzerland were pushed down by concerns about US trade policy, while exchange rate movements were more mixed. Looking ahead, we expect... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will trade fears dent growth? The recently announced US tariffs should have a limited direct effect on the UK economy. Admittedly, falls in equity prices – on the back of concerns over a full-blown trade war – could clearly have... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update High pricing to cool German investment market Commercial property investment in Germany last year fell just shy of 2007’s record. However, the headline number was inflated by rising capital values and a shift towards larger deals. We think the... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African ratings reprieve provides boost for bonds March was a mixed months for African markets. While most currencies performed well, dollar bonds sold off. Most local markets did, however, gain over Q1 as a whole. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Lending to the property sector showed no sign of improvement in February. But with net lending for development positive and lending to standing investment negative, the data suggest that a lack of... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the IT sector’s best days behind it? After outperforming for much of the past year or so, the IT sector has led the falls in stock markets in the past couple of weeks. Is a sustained period of underperformance now likely? 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Q4 Quarterly National Accounts & Money and Credit Q4’s Quarterly National Accounts confirmed that growth in 2017 was broadly unchanged from 2016, and painted a more balanced growth picture for the final quarter. Meanwhile, the latest money and credit... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices House price inflation held broadly steady at around 2% in March. But February’s lending data suggest that banks are struggling to maintain mortgage volumes. With house prices still very high and few... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to watch for as al-Sisi’s second term begins A victory for Egypt’s President al-Sisi in this week’s presidential election was never in doubt and attention will now shift to any changes to key policymaking positions. Mr. al-Sisi begins his second... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy tightening on the horizon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) looks set to keep its policy rates on hold at the meeting that ends on Thursday 5th April. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Might the labour market be looser than it appears? There is a plausible argument that widespread “underemployment” of employees who would like to work longer hours means that labour market conditions in Japan are not as tight as the historically-low... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2017) Today’s GDP figures from Turkey showed that growth was a faster-than-expected 7.3% y/y in Q4 of last year. Coming alongside high inflation, this will heighten fears that the economy is overheating. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s Gfk/NOP survey indicates that consumers were in good spirits at the end of the first quarter. And with real wages set to rise again in the coming quarters, there is scope for confidence and... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Mar.) Despite falling in March, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is consistent with annual GDP growth remaining fairly healthy. But with inflation subdued, we expect the SNB to keep interest rates on hold... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) The very strong performance of Vietnam’s economy in the first quarter of the year raises further doubts about the reliability of the country’s economic statistics. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report next month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Currently, Thailand is the only country in... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
