Latin America Chart Pack Trade war fears bypass Lat Am The escalating rhetoric over trade protectionism has largely bypassed the economies of Latin America. Indeed, the focus on US actions on steel and aluminium, as well as alleged intellectual property... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Tadawul rally to run out of steam Saudi Arabia’s stock market has jumped in recent weeks on the back of growing hopes that it will be upgraded to “emerging market” status by the index compiler FTSE Russell. But past experience shows... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish stance of Hungary’s MPC missing the bigger picture The statement accompanying today’s MPC meeting in Hungary continued to strike a dovish tone which, given the recent run of weak inflation data, isn’t a surprise. But the softness of inflation has been... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in March from an 18-year high in February leaves the index still well above its historical average. The relationship between... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Renminbi probably set for short-term pain, but long-term gain 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the BoJ abandon its 2% inflation target? Five years after Governor Kuroda embarked on aggressive policy easing, core inflation in Japan is still barely positive and the Bank of Japan seems to have run out of ideas on how to push it higher... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Better news at the start of Q1 Having slowed over the final quarter of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth nudged up for the first time in five months in January. 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) Case-Shiller reported that annual house price growth edged back to 6.2% in January, from 6.3% in December. That is the first time annual growth has fallen since June 2016, and supports our view that... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Mar.) The further fall in the EC’s measure of economic sentiment in March echoes the message from the other surveys that euro-zone GDP growth may be at its peak. And with consumers’ inflation expectations... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What causes recessions? An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped in most countries this month but still suggest that GDP growth in the region has remained strong at around 5% y/y in Q1. That... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Feb.) The latest trade data for India and China showed divergent trends in the two largest consumers. On the one hand, China’s gold imports remained robust although underlying demand appears to have... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and lending data add to the evidence from the activity surveys that economic growth has topped out. But with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the long-term outlook really so bad? There appears to be a developing consensus that the degree of permanent scarring from the financial crisis is worse than initially thought and that the UK economy has been condemned to the slow lane... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Mar.), Trade & PPI (Feb.) The Swedish economy has lost some momentum of late, but growth still looks set to be healthy. And with inflationary pressures gradually rising, we expect the Riksbank to raise interest rates this year... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
