Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How did the Nordic & Swiss economies fare in Q1? The activity surveys across the Nordics and in Switzerland generally weakened in Q1. But they were still fairly strong, so on the whole these economies seem to have performed reasonably well in the... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing softens at the end of Q1 The falls in EM manufacturing PMIs last month provide further signs that, after a pick-up right at the start of this year, growth in the emerging world eased over the course of Q1. 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Subdued demand to weigh on copper The price of copper has already fallen back sharply but we think this is more about heightened geopolitical risk than fundamentals. The price may revive in the near term if risks start to fade, but... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil rises, despite trade woes Commodity prices drifted down in March, despite a relatively stable US dollar. However, given the slump in developed market equities, commodity prices held up relatively well. This was largely due to... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does AMLO’s energy self-sufficiency plan make sense? Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO’s) goal to stop importing refined oil within three years might be a vote winner, but the large investment into domestic refining... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI fell by the most in two years in March, providing further evidence that global growth has passed its peak. Nonetheless, the PMI remains at a high level and we think... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Which equity markets are most exposed to more protectionism? 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Decline in negative equity will support homebuilding One factor shared by states with particularly low levels of single-family permits is a high level of negative equity. Those states will have experienced the biggest housing market booms and busts... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure confirmed that the sector made a very weak start to the year and, barring a surge in output in March, industry probably dragged... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will Germany fare under its new Government? The new German Government plans a fiscal boost equivalent to around 0.4% of GDP per year during its term. Increased spending on child benefits, pensions and refugee integration will support consumer... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMI data for the Gulf suggest that austerity measures are continuing to dampen growth in the non-oil sectors in the region. However, conditions should improve over the coming months as the... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI (Mar.) March’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing suggests that the recovery in the industrial sector lost a bit of steam in Q1. But it should still go some way to offsetting the weakness in high-street... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s March manufacturing PMI was surprisingly weak. We retain the view, however, that growth remained strong in Q1. They survey has, after all, given misleadingly negative readings recently. 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Heavy industry unlikely to lift China’s PMI for long China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs diverged again in March. The easing of pollution controls on heavy industry gave a boost to the official index, but slower growth elsewhere weighed... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Today’s weaker Turkish inflation reading and soft manufacturing PMI (which provided the first signs of a slowdown in the real economy) has reduced the likelihood that the MPC will tighten monetary... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Global events may keep the RBA on hold for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more worried about trade tariffs and rising global bank funding costs. Coming on top of the weakness of the housing market and wage growth, it is becoming even... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
