US Economics Update Declaration of (trade) war? The speed and scale of China’s retaliation to the proposed US tariffs represents a significant escalation of tensions, though there is still plenty of time for a deal to be struck before tariffs come... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Rising protectionism drives prices lower Fears of a trade war between China and the US and heightened geopolitical tensions weighed on most metals prices last month as investors rotated out of risky assets and into safe havens. In contrast... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week as exports rebounded and refineries processed more crude. However, production set another weekly record. We still expect prices to fall this year as surging... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts likely later in Q2 Today’s Nigerian MPC press conference supported our view that policymakers will cut rates later this year. We think that the key rate will fall from 14.00% – at which it was left today – to 13.00% in... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: growing risk that policy will be kept too loose A rise in interbank rates and weaker net wage growth appear to lie behind the Romanian MPC’s surprise decision to keep its policy interest rate on hold today. We still think that the tightening cycle... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Mortgage interest rates reached a seven-year high in March, which in turn helped push refinancing activity to close to a 10-year low. Mortgage applications for home purchase performed better, rising... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China trade tensions and the impact on EMs The proposed US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods could have knock-on effects on other EMs, especially in East Asia, via supply chains. And countries such as Turkey are vulnerable to a deterioration... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China raises the stakes of US trade action China’s rapid and aggressive response to the proposed US tariffs has raised the stakes for both sides. But its move to publish a list of counter-tariffs is primarily intended as a deterrent and we... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.) Extremely cold weather in March saw the CIPS/Markit Construction PMI plunge to its lowest level since July 2016. But with employment and future business expectations rising, there are good reasons to... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment to its lowest level since late 2008 is good news for the ECB. But with core inflation remained weak in March, so the Bank will continue to stress its patient... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money growth slowdown is not a concern Growth of almost all monetary aggregates slowed in major advanced economies in February, but we are not worried for three reasons. First, money growth has only slowed a bit. Second, changes in money... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stockholm capital values set to slide from 2019 Improved short-term prospects in Stockholm will keep office rents in the city amongst the fastest growing European markets in the next few years. However, with yield falls now at an end, total returns... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy starting a slow recovery The downturn in Saudi Arabia deepened at the end of last year, but the latest figures suggest that the economy returned to positive growth at the beginning of 2018. 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The likely consequences of escalating trade tensions Aside from equities in the US and China, those in Korea, Taiwan and South Africa appear particularly exposed to a further deterioration in Sino-American trade relations. And IT, consumer discretionary... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & Building Approvals (Feb.) While February’s retail sales and building approvals data sent mixed signals on the health of the overall economy, it is most likely that both consumption and dwellings investment will be weaker than... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
