US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The modest 103,000 gain in payroll employment in March, which follows a massive 326,000 gain in February, is a good illustration of the inherent volatility in the non-farm payroll data. The March gain... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation, to 2.4% y/y, last month confirms that the headline rate has passed its trough and we expect it to drift up over the rest of the year as food inflation strengthens. But... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone’s upturn screeching to a halt? The most recent official euro-zone data have been weak and the latest business surveys are consistent in their message that the economic expansion has lost momentum. A sanguine view of this is that... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected decline in Chilean inflation, from 2.0% y/y in February to 1.8% y/y in March, is unlikely to convince the central bank to restart its easing cycle. We expect inflation to rise... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Election likely to entrench Malaysia’s problems Against the backdrop of a strong economy and with gerrymandering stacking the odds firmly in his favour, Prime Minister Najib Razak is highly likely to win an election which will now take place by May... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about the softening in the surveys? About a month ago, we warned that the severe weather around the start of March would make the economy look a bit fragile in Q1. Indeed, the weaker-than-expected services PMI survey, released this week... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore is not a bellwether for the global economy As a small, open economy that releases GDP data much earlier than most other countries, Singapore is often billed as a bellwether for the global economy. In reality, Singapore’s GDP figures are far... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household spending to lose momentum There have been some encouraging data on the health of consumer spending in Australia recently, and with the labour market remaining strong and consumer confidence relatively high there are certainly... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth suffers weather-related dip The National Accounts showed that the economy barely slowed at all in 2017. Annual growth, revised up from 1.7% to 1.8%, was only marginally lower than 2016’s 1.9% outturn. Since then, however, the... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Rising geopolitical tensions lift oil prices March was a mixed month for energy commodities. Oil prices jumped on the back of rising tensions in the Middle East and speculation that OPEC would extend its production cuts into 2019. However... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack No sign of a housing market revival With mortgage approvals falling and house price growth sluggish, there are no signs of a revival in the housing market. Indeed, leading indicators suggest that transactions could weaken over the... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The lira’s fall and what it means for inflation and rates The fall in the Turkish lira seen in the past few weeks doesn’t look large enough (yet) to prevent inflation from easing later in the year and to prompt a monetary policy response, not least given... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) The widening of the trade deficit in February isn’t a big concern because it was driven by an increase in imports, which points to growth in domestic demand. The small rebound in exports, which comes... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Tariff bark could be worse than its bite For now, there is optimism that ongoing negotiations between the US and China will prevent a significant escalation in trade tensions. However, there remains a risk of rising protectionism, which... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The widening in the trade deficit to a near-decade high of $57.6bn in February, from $56.7bn, was entirely due to a one-off royalty payment for broadcasting rights to the Winter Olympics. But net... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
