Global Markets Focus Will the IT sector fare worst when the S&P 500 slumps? Although we are not forecasting a recession in the US, we expect the economy there to slow significantly next year and think that this will contribute to a further downturn in the stock market. As a... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB survey reveals rising cost pressures The latest NFIB survey suggests the recent tax cuts aren’t providing much support to investment. But along with the March PPI data, it also provides further evidence that inflationary pressures are... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Spanish inflation set to pick up? Despite Spain’s recent strong run of form and the prospect of higher wage growth, we suspect that core inflation will remain subdued at close to 1% this year and next. With inflation set to remain in... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Mar.) Brazilian inflation dipped again in March but our sense is that policymakers will start to focus less on the incoming inflation data and more on rising political risks and the associated drop in the... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector cooled in February, providing another sign that the economy faltered a bit in Q1. Even so, we retain the view that growth will pick up later this year. 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble’s fall doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The sharp fall in the Russian ruble today has raised the risk that the central bank pauses its easing cycle when it meets later this month. The situation is in a state of flux and the outlook for... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French, Italian & Dutch Industrial Production (Feb.) National data suggest that the euro-zone’s industrial sector fared poorly in February, despite whopping rises in energy production as a result of the unseasonably cold weather across much of the... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Asia’s Tiger economies are getting harder to follow Despite the growing protectionist threat from the US, a combination of rising automation and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices vulnerable to a shift in investor sentiment Near-record non-commercial net-long futures positions in the oil market mean that prices could fall sharply if investor sentiment sours. 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More needed to expand corporate bond market A bigger corporate bond market in India could reduce local firms’ heavy reliance on bank loans to obtain funding and improve the pricing of risk, which would have knock-on benefits for the banking... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) March’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided evidence that sales have recovered from the weak period at the start of the month, when snow deterred consumers from visiting the shops. Admittedly, some of... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s weak inflation data in Norway strengthen the case for the Norges Bank to move only very slowly towards tightening monetary policy. We suspect that it will wait until 2019 to raise interest... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further decline in Egyptian inflation last month, to 13.3% y/y, means the central bank will continue its easing cycle when it next meets in mid-May. We have pencilled in another 100bp reduction in... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What next for house prices? The recent fall in the demand for housing relative to the supply is consistent with house prices continuing to decline in the coming months. While prices may only edge lower this year and next, higher... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q1) The latest Business Outlook Survey could unnerve the Bank of Canada since it suggests that GDP growth will slow to below potential this year, while at the same time there are clear signs of mounting... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
