US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) At first glance the 1.9% m/m rise in housing starts, and 2.5% m/m increase in building permits, suggests the gradual recovery in home construction continued into March. But, in fact, growth in both... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Minimum wage shows difficulty of economic reform South African policymakers are being forced to delay the introduction of a long-planned national minimum wage bill. Overall, we think that the bill is probably a positive step for the country. The... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Apr.) April’s further decline in the ZEW measure of investor sentiment in Germany suggests that investors are worried that escalating trade tensions and broader geopolitical concerns will take their toll on... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) February’s labour market figures provide us with optimism that sustained rises in real wages are now in prospect and should seal the deal on another interest rate hike in May. 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Feb.) London continues to punch above its weight in terms of job creation. Despite that, rents in the key City and West End office markets are stagnating at already high levels. Accordingly, the headline... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update 10-year US Treasury yield unlikely to have peaked yet The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from a four-year high of almost 3.0% in late February to only around 2.7% in early April, leading to claims that it had now peaked in this cycle. Yet the yield has... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Jump in debt-to-income ratios not yet a concern Fannie Mae’s announcement last August that it would accept mortgages with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios as high as 50% triggered a sharp rise in the share of high DTI mortgages. But we doubt that change... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Despite the stronger 0.4% m/m gain in underlying retail sales in March, real consumption growth looks to have slowed to around 1% annualised in the first quarter. Nonetheless, with incomes boosted by... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Economy set to outperform in 2018 After a recent drought-related slowdown, Uganda’s economy will pick up over the next few years as policy becomes more supportive and oil production plans are stepped up. We think that growth will... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election fallout likely to be greatest in Brazil, not Mexico There are still plenty of twists and turns that have yet to play out ahead of elections in Mexico and Brazil later this year. But developments over the past month mean we are becoming less concerned... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Currency vulnerabilities building in a few EMs Financial risks remain low in the emerging world. However, since our last Financial Risks Monitor, currency vulnerabilities have increased in a handful of countries. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Sanctions on Russia send aluminium soaring Geopolitical concerns intensified this week and led to sharp increases in those commodities at risk of disruptions to supply. In particular, the price of aluminium surged following the announcement of... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market remains muted Earlier this week we learned that, according to Teranet, national house price inflation slowed to a two-year low of 6.6% in March, from 7.5% in February and a recent peak of 14.2% in mid-2017. Based... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Although it fell in April, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index remains at a high level by past standards and suggests that the slowdown in spending growth at the start of this year... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong interest rates to rise as liquidity tightens The HKMA’s sales of foreign exchange FX to support the Hong Kong dollar, which hit the weak end of its trading band this week for the first time since 2005, shows the exchange rate regime working as... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
