Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: pre-election fiscal boost to fade over 2018 Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has gained a reputation for fiscal prudence in the past few years, but the latest data suggest that stimulus in the run-up to April’s parliamentary election has caused... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A see-saw month for the bond market Over the past month, there have been significant gyrations in India’s bond market. A drop in yields in the first half of April has been followed by a sharp jump more recently, exacerbated by a hawkish... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI surveys suggest that the apparent sharp slowdown in Q1 was not the beginning of a major downturn, although growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen last year. Overall, the data... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The batch of Polish activity data for March suggests that the economy grew by 5% y/y in Q1 – in line with Q4’s outturn as a pick-up in retail spending growth offset a slowdown in industry. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) The sharp drop in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in February is probably overstating the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter. Nonetheless, it does appear that the economy started 2018 on a... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency rally not likely to resume any time soon The recent slumps in three widely-traded emerging market (EM) currencies – the Russian ruble, Turkish lira and Brazilian real – have all partly reversed since last week. But the bigger picture is that... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price surge having only limited impact on dollar The recent resurgence in oil prices should be good news for Canada but, since it is partly due to a temporary spike in geopolitical tensions, we expect prices to fall back later this year. Domestic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon While the Nordics and Switzerland seem to have made slow starts to 2018, the outlook for these economies is generally pretty bright. Nevertheless, healthy rates of economic growth will push up... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Rising tensions boost prices Geopolitical concerns continued to be the main driver of commodities prices this week. In particular, fears that US sanctions could be broadened to include Russian producer, Nornickel, buoyed the... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Have the tax cuts flopped? The weakness of real consumption growth, which appears to have slowed to only 1% annualised in the first quarter, suggests that the recent tax cuts have so far failed to provide any meaningful boost... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges up as pollution controls ease Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the easing of the government’s pollution crackdown contributed to a pick-up in economic growth last month. But the rebound will likely prove short-lived. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The headline CPI inflation rate edged up to a three-year high of 2.3% in March, from 2.2%, but the Bank of Canada will be relieved to see that its new core inflation measures remained largely... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worries about Germany are overdone Developments in Germany this week have increased concerns that the euro-zone’s growth engine is really starting to sputter. But we think that some of these concerns are overdone. After all, recent... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) The weak Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for April, coming alongside the stabilisation of the real in the past few days, means COPOM is likely to go ahead with another 25bp reduction in the Selic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does falling inflation support or undermine case for rate hike? On the face of it, the fall-back in inflation in March has reduced the chances of a hike in interest rates in May. And Governor Carney’s comments appear to add weight to this view. However, an... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
