Global Markets Outlook Is the party over? In the last edition of The Capital Markets Analyst, we warned that the party in the financial markets might not last much longer. Since then, the US S&P 500 has fallen considerably from a record high... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices: Africa’s winners and losers Commodities make up a large part of Africa’s exports but the degree of dependence and product diversification varies across the region. While the value of net exports of energy producers, including... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s unchanged reading in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment provides further reassurance that the weakness of activity in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp slowdown. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Preliminary Estimate (Q1) While weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q1 largely reflects the severe weather, and so should be transitory, it is probably the final nail in the coffin for an interest rate hike in May. However, a... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but is still consistent with strong GDP growth. The fall in the ESIs was... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1 Advanced) After hitting a multi-year high in Q4, Taiwan’s GDP growth edged down last quarter. We expect the economy to cool further over the quarters ahead. Domestic demand is likely to hold up fairly well... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) UK house price inflation edged up in April. But with buyer demand falling and house prices very high, there is little prospect of a sustained acceleration in house price growth. Indeed, with London... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry about the rupiah Earlier this week Bank Indonesia raised the prospect of an interest rate hike to support the rupiah, which has come under further downward pressure as rising Treasury yields in the US have pushed the... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed month for markets, but rand suffers The rand’s recent rally seems well and truly over; it weakened against the US dollar by even more than EM peers this month. We expect that the currency will continue to fall late this year. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) April’s GfK/NOP survey suggested that consumers have become a little less optimistic at the start of Q2. But with real wages set to rise again in the coming quarters, there is scope for confidence and... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French and Spanish GDP (Q4) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The first estimates of French, Spanish and Austrian GDP in Q1 suggest that quarterly growth in the euro-zone as a whole slowed from Q4’s 0.7% to around 0.4%. Meanwhile, there were no signs of rising... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth softens in Q1 Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the emerging world eased over Q1, which seems to have been driven by weaker activity in EM industry. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA, the Royal Commission and housing We suspect that a tightening in lending standards as a result of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct will more than offset any further relaxation in APRA’s lending restrictions to leave... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage pressures building We estimate that payroll employment growth rebounded to 175,000 in April but, more importantly for the Fed, average hourly earnings growth appears to be accelerating. 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1) Given the number of existing homes for sale recently dropped to a record low, it is no surprise that the homeowner vacancy rate fell to 1.5% in the first-quarter, the joint-lowest rate for 24 years... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rise in MENA dollar bond yields has further to go Dollar bond yields have risen across the MENA region over the past month and we think this process has further to run. Underlying US Treasury yields look set to creep up as the Fed raises interest... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
