US Economics Update Rebound in healthcare inflation a headache for the Fed The rebound in core PCE inflation over recent months in part reflects sharp increases in administered payments for hospital services that will be repeated later this year. A revival in healthcare... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest bout of EM currency weakness The recent pressure on EM currencies has prompted a stronger reaction from EM central banks than we have seen for some time. But while we do expect a general shift towards monetary tightening in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Safe-haven demand gives a boost to gold prices Despite the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the US, the price of gold has proved particularly resilient so far this year. We think that strong safe-haven demand on the back of heightened... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q expansion in Mexican GDP in Q1 partly reflects the unwinding of some earthquake-related effects, but there are also signs of a broader rebound in activity. Today’s... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Weaker inflation points to rate cut Today’s inflation figures support our view that policymakers will cut their key rate in July. Meanwhile, the rebate surrounding Kenya’s lending rate cap suggests that the controversial law will be... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Three more Fed hikes this year, ECB and BoJ on hold Despite economic activity slowing in Q1, we expect the Fed to press on with three more rate hikes this year, not least because inflation has been higher than anticipated in recent months. But in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) German HICP inflation dipped from 1.5% to 1.4% in April as increases in energy and food inflation were offset by a fall in the core rate. While the latter partly reflected temporary effects, the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies wobble Asian currencies have recently lost a bit of ground against the dollar as rising Treasury yields in the US have helped push the greenback higher. Although uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Public debt fears concentrated in smaller frontiers Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s easing cycle probably at an end The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate on Friday night by 25bp (to 4.25%) probably marks the last move in the easing cycle. We expect the policy rate to be left... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India still well short of universal electricity access The government announced over the weekend that it has successfully managed to electrify all villages in India, meeting its deadline of 1st May 2018 that it set three years ago. But in reality, a large... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone money and lending data add to the evidence that economic growth has peaked. But with households’ and firms’ demand for loans still strong, and ECB policy set to remain accommodative... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Apr.) The small rise in the KOF Economic Barometer in April is consistent with continued healthy growth in Switzerland. But with inflation still very weak, we expect the SNB to strong monetary policy... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Election could make Malaysia’s problems worse Despite facing a resurgent opposition, Prime Minister Najib Razak is favourite to win a third term in a general election due on 9 th May. A victory for Najib would probably lead to a short-term fiscal... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
