Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Trump and the Iran nuclear deal There’s a growing chance that US President Donald Trump will refuse to waive sanctions on Iran later this month. In this Update, we answer five key questions on the sanctions and the nuclear deal, as... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.3 in April, from 59.3 in March, was worse than the consensus forecast and echoes the weaker tone of some of the early regional surveys. Nonetheless, on... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How healthy is German industrial demand? Following last year’s fall in take-up, recent signs that the German economy is coming off the boil raise questions about industrial and logistics demand. However, we think that the economic outlook is... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rental households not a risk for rental growth The number of households in the rental sector has seen year-on-year declines in each of the last four quarters. But an equivalent supply response, with some homes shifting to the homeowner sector and... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The 0.4%m/m rebound in monthly GDP in February, which was slightly stronger than the 0.3% consensus estimate, will renew speculation that the Bank of Canada will resume raising interest rates soon... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet continued to weigh on the narrow monetary aggregates in March, but this is unlikely to prove a major drag on the economy. Our measure of M3 shows that broad... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) Unsecured lending to households ground to a halt in March, raising concerns of a sharp pull-back in consumer spending growth. But other indicators suggest that the slowdown in lending will prove... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Time to turn bullish on Mexico? The outlook for Mexico’s economy is, despite worries over Nafta renegotiations and an Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidency, brighter than many seem to think. We’ve revised up our forecasts and now... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Today’s net lending data from the Bank of England offered few surprises. But the fact that lending activity appears subdued seems consistent with the falling levels of investment market activity in... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Manuf. PMI (Apr.) & Money and Credit Statistics (Mar.) The latest Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Survey suggested that the sector struggled to re-gain much momentum at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s Money and Credit figures revealed a... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) House purchase mortgage approvals fell again in March. And there are few reasons to expect a meaningful recovery in mortgage activity over the remainder of the year. 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) House price inflation fell below zero in April for the first time since 2012 and with demand probably only going to be more constrained by lending conditions, we suspect that it will fall further into... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rate differentials unlikely to buoy the dollar for long The relationships between the dollar’s value against other “majors” and the gaps between expected interest rates in the US and those elsewhere appear to be re-establishing themselves. This has been... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Three key risks to commodity prices In this Commodities Watch, we take stock of three of the most serious geopolitical risks that have emerged over the past few months. These are the prospect of a trade war between the US and China, US... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
