Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Summit talks and the impact on Korea’s economy Today’s landmark summit between the two Koreas should help to remove a major tail risk for the region’s markets and economies. However, the impact on South Korea’s economy of an easing in tensions is... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities fall to multi-month low China’s equity markets dropped this month to their lowest since 2016 as the US-China trade conflict escalated. Meanwhile, a jump in interbank interest rates may put pressure on the country’s bond... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker currencies and higher oil prices boost equities Amid escalating international trade tensions, the Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated across the board in April. Weaker exchange rates helped to give equities a boost, while the main bourses in... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit red lines be rubbed out? With the deadline for finalising the withdrawal agreement and a framework for the UK’s future relationship with the EU fast approaching, many issues are still unresolved – not least the Irish border... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will rising interest rates choke off the expansion? The further rise in 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level since 2011 dominated the markets this week and there are signs that the Fed’s policy tightening is starting to feed through to the... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Quiet after the storm The earlier surge in oil and industrial metals prices came to an abrupt halt this week as oil stabilised and there were sharp falls in the prices of some metals. In particular, the US Treasury’s... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What do higher oil prices mean for euro-zone inflation? The upward revision to our 2018 oil price forecast means that the contribution from energy to headline inflation will be a bit bigger than we had previously assumed. But this effect is likely to be... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A soft start to 2018 The latest activity data suggest that Latin America’s economic recovery paused for breath in the first quarter of 2018. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 2.5% y/y, unchanged from Q4. Activity data... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Why did the OBR get its fiscal forecasts so wrong? This week’s public finances figures showed that borrowing for the full 2017/18 financial year came in at £42.6bn, a whopping £16bn lower than that predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal would boost foreign investment This week brought a furious last-minute push from all sides to reach a provisional deal on updating NAFTA, ahead of July’s Mexican presidential election. The US congressional mid-term elections won’t... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage demand With the 10-year Treasury yield breaching 3% earlier this week, mortgage rates are set to trend higher. That will push refinancing activity down to 18-year lows by the end of the year. Purchase demand... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to 2.3% annualised in the first quarter, from 2.9% in the final quarter of last year, was a slight disappointment since the tax cuts should have provided an immediate boost... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Summit talks and the impact on Korea’s economy Today’s landmark summit between the two Koreas should help to remove a major tail risk for the region’s markets and economies. However, the impact on South Korea’s economy of an easing in tensions is... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals rate cuts still on the cards, despite ruble sell-off The sell-off in the ruble caused the Russian central bank (CBR) to pause its easing cycle today, but the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that rates are likely to be lowered... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
