US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Feb.) Annual house price growth on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures has been fairly stable since the start of the year. After dropping for the first time in 18-months in January, growth on the... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi talk of $100pb oil doesn’t signal shift in oil policy The recent jump in oil prices to $75pb has been fuelled in part by reports that the Saudi authorities have expressed a desire for prices of $100pb. But we don’t think a fundamental shift in Saudi oil... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month reinforces our view that the next move in interest rates will be down. That said, the recent slide in the peso – if... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr.) Despite coming in a touch below expectations, the headline total orders balance of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey points to the manufacturing sector sustaining its recent expansion. However, a... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) March’s public finances figures will come as welcome news to the Chancellor and further increases the scope for the Chancellor to ease back on austerity in the Autumn. 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Investment activity slows over start of 2018 Investment activity slowed over the first quarter of 2018, with both the number and value of transactions falling since the end of 2017. Nevertheless, a small increase in rents and slight fall in... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s disappointing Ifo survey added to signs that the German economy is slowing, but not as sharply as recent hard data imply. This is further cause for caution ahead of the ECB’s meeting this... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Saudi inflation edged down to 2.8% y/y last month, although it was still much higher than the rates recorded last year due to the impact of tax hikes and subsidy cuts. The early evidence suggests that... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Growing less optimistic Despite underlying inflation coming in slightly stronger than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected in the first quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave interest rates at 1.5% at its next policy... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Even though in the first quarter underlying inflation essentially rose back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time in two years, we doubt this means that the RBA will raise interest... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin to tread water Growth in tin demand is expected to slow this year, but remain slightly stronger than the historical trend. However, constrained supply should support prices, which we expect to be relatively flat... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Apr.) The business surveys for April, published by Markit today, support our view that the weakness of some of the recent data for advanced economies probably doesn’t mark the start of a sustained slowdown. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales increased for the second month in a row in March. But, at 1.1% m/m, the rise was modest and sales are still lower than at this time last year. A lack of inventory explains that... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will softer EM inflation trigger interest rate cuts? The recent string of weak inflation data released across EMs has been due largely to a drop in food inflation and, while we think that many central banks will look through this, policymakers in some... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
