Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada moving to side lines The Bank of Canada left its key policy rate unchanged at 1.25% at today's Governing Council meeting and, although the markets still anticipate a further 25bp rate hike later this year, we think the... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Softer inflation data unlikely to depress Gilt yields for long 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Short-term risks of protectionism are overstated Even if the US and China were to follow through on their recent protectionist threats, the impact on global growth in the next year or two would be small. Moreover, a bigger and more damaging... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russian activity figures for March were generally quite soft, but it still looks like overall GDP growth picked up to about 2.0% y/y in Q1 from 0.9% y/y in Q4. The turmoil in local financial markets... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will blockchain revolutionise the property industry? A quick internet search suggests that blockchain technology could have far-reaching changes for a multitude of industries, including commercial property. But even if the technology doesn’t live up to... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slowed in Q1 Today’s retail figures show that consumer spending was robust in Q1. The comparison with a very strong result in Q4 will depress q/q GDP growth this quarter, but we don’t think that this marks a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Should we fear a Labour government? Forget Brexit – the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy over the next couple of years could be the advent of a Labour government, and a particularly left-wing one at that. On the plus side, this... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Feb.) UK house price inflation cooled in February. And, for the first time since September 2009, the official index recorded prices in London falling on an annual basis. Looking ahead, with house prices... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental value growth holding up well All-property rental value growth has been hovering at just under 2% y/y for the past seven months and shows few signs of slowing. But a sectoral breakdown shows that this stability is largely... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) While the bigger-than-expected fall in inflation in March means that another hike in interest rates in May is now less clear cut, we nonetheless think that it remains more likely than not. 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch – AMLO fears recede Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) appears to have made headway in allaying investors’ fears of a dramatic shift in policy if he wins Mexico’s presidential election in July. But... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% increase in industrial production in March, following the upwardly revised gain of 1.0% in February, suggests that the factory sector is still in good health, although manufacturing output... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Markets recover as fears of imminent trade war recede Equity markets across Emerging Asia have bounced back a little since early April as fears of an imminent trade war between the US and China have receded. The decision by the US Treasury not to label... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) The 1.9% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales in February means that the factory sector made a solid contribution to first-quarter economic growth but, looking further ahead, the softness of unfilled... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut to support lending to small firms Today required reserve ratio (RRR) cut doesn’t constitute broad monetary easing. But it does signal that – despite the recent strength of the official data – policymakers are starting to balance... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
