Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) Global aluminium output continued to grow in March. We expect growth in output to pick up pace over the coming months as higher prices and the effects of the US sanctions on Russia prompt producers... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Slowdown on the horizon Despite some weakness in the first quarter, and concerns about protectionism, global economic growth is likely to hold up well this year. In advanced economies, the outlook for investment and... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update New (higher) forecast for oil prices Given the rise in potential risks to supply, stronger-than-expected demand in Q1 and slumping output in Venezuela, we are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for the prices of Brent and WTI. But we... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble and lira sway next week’s rate decisions? The latest moves in the Russian and Turkish currencies mean interest rate decisions due in both countries next week are on a knife edge. On balance, we think the Turkish central bank will raise its... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Too soon to worry about supply Commodity prices have generally had a strong start to the year, boosted in particular by risks to supply. However, in many cases, supply has not been disrupted yet and the worst fears of supply... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Winds of change reach Ethiopia Ethiopia’s ruling party appointed a new prime minister on 2nd April, stabilising a situation that had been in flux since the previous incumbent’s resignation in February. Abiy Ahmed inherits a divided... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Three more years of housing market malaise With interest rates continuing to normalise, mortgage rates will reach 3.6% by 2020. Combined with the fact that prices are already very high, that will offset the effect of accelerating wage growth... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trade war fears overblown, for now President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from China have raised concerns of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Many fear that this could have knock-on effects on EMs... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policymaking takes turn for the worse as elections approach Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan all face crucial elections over the next few months, and in each country, policymaking has recently taken a turn for the worse. In Malaysia and Indonesia we see little... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Low inflation continues to haunt New Zealand Looking past the temporary dip in inflation in the first quarter, which was partly driven by government decisions, there have been some encouraging signs about the outlook for inflation in New Zealand... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Expect “closed-mouth” operations from Mr Draghi With the economic data weakening, but some members of the Governing Council keen to bring asset purchases to an end, President Draghi is unlikely to give much away next week. We suspect that the ECB... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) A rise in US-China trade tensions has dominated headlines in recent weeks. But recent developments are not having any impact on cross-border capital flows. Our estimates suggest that flows in and out... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Economy to withstand higher interest rates We maintain our relatively optimistic view about the prospects for UK economic growth over the next few years. In particular, a recovery in real earnings should help household spending growth to... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Changed Riksbank guidance will still signal 2018 rate rise At next week’s meeting, the Riksbank is likely to cut its GDP growth and inflation forecasts. This leads us to expect the Bank to signal that interest rate rises will come later than policymakers... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export soft spot adds to evidence EM growth has peaked The export components of the EM business surveys have not deteriorated to the same extent as those in developed markets over the past couple of months, but they nonetheless add to the evidence that... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
