Commodity prices have generally had a strong start to the year, boosted in particular by risks to supply. However, in many cases, supply has not been disrupted yet and the worst fears of supply shortfalls may not materialise. On the demand side, there are signs that China is slowing but wider global growth will only slip back a little this year, before a more marked downturn in 2019. By end-2018, we expect the prices of most energy commodities and metals to be lower. But this does assume that the worst fears over supply disruption are not realised.
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