US Economics Update The fading impact of the opioid crisis The opioid crisis is still costing lives and devastating communities, but its impact on the labour market is at least beginning to fade. The sharp fall in prescription rates last year suggests that... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Swiss franc continue to weaken? The safe haven Swiss franc has depreciated steadily over the past couple of months despite geopolitical worries and rising protectionism. We think that the franc will continue to weaken as the ECB... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Public sector wage talks pose fiscal risk Labour relations in South Africa are deteriorating. Public sector wage talks are particularly fraught; a strike could cripple government services, while a big wage hike would sharply widen the budget... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Rising inflation will prompt faster tightening this year The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with signs that underlying inflationary pressures are continuing to build, officials may use the post-meeting statement... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households already being squeezed by higher rates Consumption growth was the key driver behind the Canadian economy’s recent strength, particularly in the first half of last year. Since mid-2017, however, retail sales volumes have largely stagnated... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hike brings only temporary relief for the lira The move by the Turkish MPC to hike its late liquidity rate by 75bp today only brought temporary relief for the lira and suggests that markets are unconvinced about policymakers’ willingness to shore... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.0% y/y increase in global steel production in March, driven by higher output in China, India and the US. We expect this trend to continue over the coming... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest jump in oil The latest rise in oil prices has eased fiscal concerns in a number of EM oil producers but only at the expense of increased balance of payments concerns in some EM oil consumers, notably Turkey and... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: BCRA turns hawkish, policy to stay tight Argentina’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 27.25% last night, but the statement accompanying the decision struck a notably more hawkish tone and suggested that the easing... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why OPEC won’t prolong its cuts The rise in oil prices, fall in crude inventories and surge in non-OPEC production, especially in the US, mean that OPEC is likely to gradually increase output next year rather than extend its cuts. 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Any pause before rates rise again will be short Governor Carney’s comment that the MPC will decide whether or not to increase Bank Rate in May "conscious that there are other meetings over the course of this year" suggests that he wants to hold off... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price has further to fall The US Treasury’s decision to soften its position on sanctions against Russian aluminium producer, Rusal, has sent the price of aluminium tumbling in the past couple of days. We think that prices will... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with higher oil prices We think the recent rise in oil prices is likely to be reversed. But even if prices rose steadily to $100pb, there would be little fallout for global growth, despite an increase in headline inflation. 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) Substantial upward revisions to new home sales in January and February, coupled with a 4.0% m/m rise in March, means new sales now look to have made a decent start to the year. The relatively healthy... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
