Europe Economics Update ECB confident about inflation despite slower growth The ECB opted to leave its policy and guidance unchanged today, expressing caution about the softer tone of economic data. But it argued that growth was merely moderating from a strong pace and... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The gain in durable goods orders in March was entirely due to a surge in aircraft orders whereas underlying orders and shipments declined. That points to a sharp slowdown in business equipment... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prospects for Bucharest industrial rents weakening Strong demand for industrial space in Bucharest has pushed vacancy down to very low levels. Yet prime rents have been flat for the past 18 months as rising capital values have supported new... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) The pick-up in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in April suggests that March’s weakness was largely a reflection of the severe weather conditions. And with real wages now on the rise, the outlook... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) Today’s RICS Survey paints a subdued picture of occupier demand conditions. But closer inspection shows that this weakness stems mainly from the continuing problem of the retail sector. 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to keep guidance unchanged, for now The Norges Bank is unlikely to respond to recent weak data by altering its forward guidance next week. But we still think that it will ultimately tighten policy a little more slowly than generally... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand & Supply Monitor (Q1) China’s industrial activity held up well in the first quarter of 2018, but year-on-year growth in some of the more metal-intensive sectors slowed from the previous quarter. Moreover, we expect the... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Booming land sales flatter local government finances In aggregate, local government debt ratios have been fairly stable during the past few years and there has been a clear improvement in the composition of the debt. But the picture looks less rosy once... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) The latest trade data for India and China showed that imports of gold in the two largest consumers weakened in March. Higher prices probably discouraged purchases. We had warned that this could happen... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Mar.) Mortgage lending fell in March, extending February’s drop in activity. With house prices very high and interest rates now rising, there are few reasons to expect a meaningful recovery in lending this... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank delays interest rate rises The Riksbank now expects interest rates to remain unchanged until Q4. We think that the Bank will raise rates gradually this year and next, before adopting a faster pace of tightening in 2020. 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade growth holding up well (for now) Data published earlier today show that global trade was expanding rapidly in the three months ending in February. More timely business surveys suggest that it may have slowed since then, but they have... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in the real? The sharp drop in the Brazilian real over the past month has, in our view, been driven more by local developments – including growing uncertainty over the outcome of October’s elections – than it has... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as demand from refineries fell and production continued to grow. Indeed, we still expect surging US crude production to lead to lower prices later in the year... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon’s central bank putting the dollar peg at risk? The Lebanese authorities have suggested that they will soon undertake another “financial engineering” exercise in an effort to boost the central banks’ FX reserves and reduce the government’s debt... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
