Durable Goods (Mar.)

The gain in durable goods orders in March was entirely due to a surge in aircraft orders whereas underlying orders and shipments declined. That points to a sharp slowdown in business equipment investment in the first quarter, just as the corporate tax cuts were taking effect. Nonetheless, the advance March trade and inventories data also released this morning suggest that Q1 GDP growth (due out tomorrow) will come in at up to 2.8% annualised, above our previous 2.3% estimate.