UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook for real pay brightens Abstracting from the effects of the snow, the big picture remains one of pretty feeble high-street activity. But we doubt consumer spending growth will weaken further. CPI inflation now appears to be... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Amsterdam office rents getting too high? As the balance of supply and demand in Amsterdam offices shifts yet further in favour of landlords, we expect the vacancy rate to fall to around 4.5% and prime rents to climb to €450/sqm/yr by the end... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s current account deficit to narrow further The narrowing in Egypt’s current account deficit has further to run, supported by a recovery in the tourism sector and strong export growth. This will help to limit downward pressure on the pound and... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A sluggish recovery The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa should continue over the coming months but growth is likely to be weaker than most anticipate. The rebound is being led by the Gulf as the drag from... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) Healthy levels of occupier demand and rising rental values, at least in the office and industrial sectors, have not been able to boost the development pipeline, with labour shortages continuing to... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s retail sales figures were always likely to be weak after the unusually bad weather at the start of the month. And with the bulk of the lost spending likely to be made up, the bad news shouldn... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) While the modest increase in employment in March was a notable break from the exceptionally large rises recorded over the past year, we are wary about sounding the alarm just yet given most leading... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The fall back in CPI inflation towards the bottom of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range in the first quarter was partly due to government decisions rather than economic forces, but it nonetheless highlights... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Health of labour market as unclear as ever Investor scepticism about much of China’s economic data is deep-rooted and the unemployment figures have long been considered among the worst of the lot. So the release this week of a new, survey... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we fear a Labour government in the UK? Forget Brexit – the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy over the next couple of years could be the advent of a Labour government, and a particularly left-wing one at that. On the plus side, this... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks of most metals edge lower Total exchange stocks of most industrial metals have fallen over the past month, but cancelled warrants have in most cases also declined which points to lacklustre demand. We expect inventories to... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Good Trump, Bad Trump The apparent slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, to between 2.0% and 2.5% annualised, is likely to be reversed as the boost from the recent fiscal stimulus outweighs any hit from... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slipped last week as net imports slumped. But the big surprise was a jump in demand for gasoline, to a new record. However, we would caution that such large moves in the... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come While the latest data suggest that the European economies made a weak start to the year, we do not see this as the start of a serious slowdown. The euro-zone in particular has more spare capacity than... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
