UK Commercial Property Update Will Rest of South East offices continue to outperform? Compared to other office markets, the Rest of the South East has been performing well. However, we do not expect this outperformance to last. A fresh surge in occupier demand seems unlikely and, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s PMI data showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to weaken as a result of austerity measures introduced at the start of this year, but we think that this slowdown will be temporary... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) Today’s stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation data will add to fears that the economy is overheating and strengthens the case for the MPC to hike interest rates further over the coming months. 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates on hold throughout 2018 and 2019 The only thing we expect to change at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand‘s monetary policy meeting on Thursday 10 th May is the Governor, as interest rates will almost certainly stay on hold at 1.75% at... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Mar.) While most of the other major economies have slowed in the first quarter, March’s international trade and building approvals figures suggest that the Australian economy strengthened markedly. 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on course for next rate hike in June The Fed was never likely to signal a major shift in policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at 1.5% to 1.75% and the accompanying statement... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emergency rate hike fails to shore up Argentine peso The Argentine central bank’s interest rate hike at an unscheduled meeting on Friday has provided little relief for the peso, which is down by another 2.5% against the dollar today. Against a backdrop... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A month of two halves for metals April was a month of two halves for most metals. The imposition of US sanctions on Russia sent the prices of several industrial and precious metals – notably aluminium, nickel and palladium – surging... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries vulnerable even if inflation worries ease More than half of the 80bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since last September, to around 3.0% now, can be attributed to inflation compensation. The rest has been guided by a belief that the Fed... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stabilises at the start of Q2 April’s PMIs suggest that, having slowed in Q1, growth in EM manufacturing steadied at the start of Q2. But the surveys brought further evidence that EM export growth may weaken in the coming months. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The EU’s next budget and what it means for CEE The EU’s draft budget for 2021-27 released today only provided headline details but, as a rough estimate, we think that annual structural fund inflows for each of the Central and Eastern European (CEE... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as net imports increased, demand from refineries fell and production continued to grow. Indeed, we still expect surging US crude production to lead to lower... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Business surveys for April, published today, suggest that global manufacturing conditions started Q2 in good shape and support our view that world GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations should limit weakness in EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have continued to slip against the dollar, probably in large part due to rising bond yields in the US and a global increase in risk aversion. We suspect that US... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Key questions about the UK local elections Local elections tend not to be a big deal, at least from an economic perspective. Turnout is typically low, and many voters are swayed by local issues. Nonetheless, given the fragile political... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
