Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher spending causes Saudi budget deficit to widen Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened in Q1 compared with a year earlier as a raft of public sector bonuses more than offset the boost to revenues from the introduction of a new value-added tax. That... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Buyers rush in to beat rising mortgage interest rates The rise in mortgage interest rates has had contrasting impacts on refinancing and home purchase mortgage applications. While refinancing applications dropped close to a 10-year low, home purchase... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget response: Asking too much of the economy While the good performance of the economy has allowed Treasurer Scott Morrison to cut income taxes and project a return to a budget surplus one year ahead of schedule in the last Budget before next... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver mine supply to bounce back in 2018 After two years of declines, we expect silver mine supply to pick up in 2018 as higher industrial metals prices encourage by-product output. This is one reason behind our relatively bearish view on... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the fall in the lira mean for Turkey’s FX debts? The latest fall in the Turkish lira doesn’t appear to have resulted in widespread balance sheet strains, but there are significant vulnerabilities in the corporate and banking sectors. This adds to... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yield correction will be limited As the ECB starts to tighten monetary policy, higher risk-free rates are likely to put upward pressure on property yields. However, we think that real equilibrium interest rates are now lower than in... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity import volumes come off the boil China’s commodity import volumes held up in April, although the late timing of the Chinese New Year holiday is still having a disruptive effect on the data. We expect growth in import volumes to slow... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes tinged with hawkish comments The minutes to the Riksbank’s April meeting were slightly hawkish and suggest that the Bank is on track to raise interest rates this year. We think that markets have gone too far in pushing the krona... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) According to the Halifax index, house prices fell sharply in April, more than reversing March’s gain. And with buyer demand and housing market activity falling, we expect house price inflation to edge... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) The sharper than anticipated easing in real retail sales growth in the first quarter points to a notable slowdown in real consumption growth last quarter. Moreover, the stagnation in nominal retail... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Indonesia’s growth eased to 5.1% y/y in Q1, from 5.2%, and we see little prospect of a rebound. With policymakers running out of scope to stimulate the economy further, we expect growth to remain... 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US asks for the moon in China trade talks Demands made by the US going into this week’s trade negotiations with China were unrealistically high and an agreement today was never likely. Indeed, unless the Trump administration settles for a lot... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz far too sanguine on debt build-up Earlier this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave a remarkably sanguine speech on the build-up in household debt. He concluded that, although record-high debt represented a risk and means... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Markets looking for direction There was little in the way of market-moving data or news this week. China’s PMI data for April were broadly unchanged on the month, painting a picture of relative stability. Meanwhile, although the... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Another first-quarter blip The weakness in advanced economies early this year, which was largely driven by softer household spending, looks like a temporary setback rather than anything more ominous. Admittedly, economic growth... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
