US Economics Weekly How far will inflation overshoot? We learned this week that core PCE inflation reached 1.9% in March, within a whisker of the Fed’s 2% target, and we think it has further to rise over the rest of this year. We expect a gradual pick-up... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA rate hike may finally provide a floor for the peso Today’s 675bp interest rate hike by the Argentine central bank, the third emergency hike in a week, finally seems to have brought some support to the currency. Evidence from other EM central banks... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: A closer look at public debt worries We’ve long argued that Zambia’s debt position is very fragile. Adverse commodity price moves, for instance, could quickly push it into debt distress. If recent allegations that officials have... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) With the unemployment rate hitting an 18-year low of only 3.9% in April, the Fed is still going to push ahead and raise rates again in June, even though average hourly earnings growth remained muted. 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Russian inflation figure for April, of 2.4% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates last week was just a pause in the easing cycle. We... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will central London bear the brunt of any price falls? The shortage of willing buyers is most evident at the top end of London’s housing market. So in 2018, we expect house price falls to be concentrated in the more expensive central London boroughs. In... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Drilling down into construction’s weak start to the year The slowdown in quarterly GDP growth in Q1 begs the question whether the economy is too fragile to withstand a tightening in monetary policy anytime soon. But the slowdown was almost entirely due to... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Did the euro-zone catch a cold in Q1? We think that temporary factors – including industrial action, cold weather and an outbreak of the flu – explain about 0.2 percentage points of the slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth from 0.7%... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Interest rates to rise as inflation concerns mount A further rise in inflation in April and more hawkish comments from policymakers suggest the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is likely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting on Thursday... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation has peaked Consumer price inflation will probably have edged down further in April following a spike in February that took the headline rate to the highest since 2013. We think inflation will be broadly stable... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending had a weak first quarter. And April’s Composite PMI implies that the pace of GDP growth is unlikely to fully rebound after a slow Q1... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Karnataka election a key bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming vote in Karnataka can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a convincing... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Mar.) Swedish private sector production was unchanged in March meaning that growth slowed over Q1 as a whole. Nevertheless, this still implies that GDP expanded at a respectable rate. 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget preview: Electioneering outdoes fiscal restraint While the income tax cuts that the Australian Treasurer is planning to announce in Tuesday’s Federal Budget will provide a small boost to the economy over the next couple of years, we doubt they will... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still ruling out a near-term rate hike The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Statement on Monetary Policy provided a clearer sign that the RBA has moved on from wondering if interest rates need to rise to considering when they will rise. But the... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
