RBA Watch What could prompt a rate rise in 2018? The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd April and it’s likely to reiterate that rate hikes remain some way off by... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Why aren’t Treasuries benefiting from protectionism? Although US Treasuries might have been expected to benefit from the recent slump in the stock market, the 10-year yield has not changed much. By contrast, the 10-year German Bund yield has fallen... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s imports start the year on a strong note Although China’s imports of most metals rose strongly in the first two months of 2018, other indicators imply weaker domestic demand, which could lead to lower volumes in the coming months. 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional growth stays strong in Q1 The latest activity figures suggest that Emerging Europe’s strong economic performance continued in the early months of this year. Russia’s recovery has resumed following a slowdown in the second half... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 3.5% y/y increase in global steel production in February led by higher output in China, India and Brazil. US production also edged higher and we expect it... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Easing cycle continues Today’s unexpectedly aggressive interest rate cut – which took the key rate to 18.00% – suggest that the current loosening cycle has further to run. We expect that the rate will fall to 16.00% by year... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Jump in oil prices likely to be temporary Increasing tensions in the Middle East and expectations that OPEC will extend its output cuts have driven oil prices higher recently. However, even if President Trump reimposes sanctions on Iran... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Five Star-League alliance really be that bad? The fundamental differences between Italy’s Five Star Movement and League suggest that even if the parties agreed to form a government, they would not agree to implement either party’s more extreme... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Impact of KORUS changes is small Korea looks to have emerged from the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) re-negotiations unscathed, but rising trade tensions between the US and China remain a threat to its export sector. 26th March 2018 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Feb.) House purchase mortgage approvals saw a sizeable fall in February. What’s more, near term indicators point to further weakness over the next few months. But with the economic backdrop supportive and... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Fidesz to face tougher economic challenges in third term The ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition looks set to win another majority at the forthcoming Hungarian legislative elections, but after enjoying a period of strong GDP growth and low inflation in its current... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jan.) The fairly modest rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in January suggests that the economy failed to gain much momentum at the start of the year. Looking ahead, we continue to expect GDP growth to... 26th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Risk of a step change under new RBNZ Governor Incoming RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr today signed a Policy Targets Agreement that included a new reference to employment. Admittedly, this probably won’t significantly alter the outlook for monetary... 25th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Curtain raised on future relationship negotiations As expected, on Friday the EU Council endorsed a transition period and the opening up of a new strand of negotiations on the future relationship. But unless the UK can come up with a solution to the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor And now for some good news on world trade On the same day the US and China exchanged fire in what is potentially the beginning of a trade war, data published by the CPB Netherlands Bureau show that world trade made a great start to 2018. And... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
