Global Economics Update Powell era begins on a hawkish note The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp today was widely expected but some investors may have been caught off-guard by the degree to which Fed officials increased their projections for... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Trade: The devil is in the details Political leaders from across Africa have gathered in Rwanda to sign an ambitious new trade pact. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been billed as the first step to creating a... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week as imports dropped and demand from refineries jumped. However, production is still rising rapidly. We expect soaring output to lead to higher stocks and lower... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The 3% m/m gain in existing home sales in February was better than expected. Even so, that rise just reversed January’s drop, and left sales essentially unchanged from their level a year ago. With the... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weak spending growth just a blip The latest data indicate that GDP growth was no more than 2.5% annualised in the first quarter, with real consumption growth slowing to around 2%. That would hardly be a disaster, but is disappointing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt: what to expect from al-Sisi’s second term? Egypt’s President al-Sisi is certain to emerge victorious in next week’s election and will begin his second term just as the economy is about to enjoy a cyclical upturn in growth. Beyond the next few... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Russian activity figures for February were generally a bit weaker than expected, but even so it looks like the economy is on course to grow by about 1.5-1.8% y/y in Q1, up from about 1.0% y/y in Q4... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 2.9% y/y last month but it remained much higher than the rates recorded in late-2017 due to the impact of recent tax hikes and subsidy cuts. We expect inflation... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will productivity growth start to pick up? The weakness of euro-zone productivity growth since the global financial crisis can in part be attributed to cyclical factors. As these factors reverse, there is scope for economic growth to remain... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Mar.) The easing in output expectations among manufacturers in the CBI’s Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the boost to manufacturing output from the pound’s depreciation has faded somewhat. But given... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs in a world of rising bond yields The EMs with the largest debt burdens are (unsurprisingly) most vulnerable to a spike in global borrowing costs. However, interest rates are only one of several components that determine debt... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Iceland drop its remaining capital controls? While the Central Bank of Iceland’s forecasts imply that it intends to scale back its controls on foreign investment later this year, we think that it will end up leaving them unchanged until 2020. 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia still open to rate cuts, Chile on hold for now Colombia’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% last night, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing in the near term. Meanwhile, Chile’s central bank kept... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) & Public Finances (Feb.) January’s labour market figures provided clearer signs of a revival in earnings growth, suggesting that it won’t be long before we start to see sustained rises in real pay. Meanwhile, government... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jan.) Today’s jobs data highlight that tentative signs of a moderation in property investment market activity are not being reflected in, or driven by, occupier fundamentals. If anything, labour shortages... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
