Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions threat The fall in Russia’s external liabilities over the past few years has reduced the extent to which its economy might be adversely affected by the imposition of additional financial sanctions. By the... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: What to make of the latest fall in the rupee? The latest fall in the Pakistani rupee has once again put the spotlight on the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency weaken much... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks still not following the Fed The Fed is likely to raise interest rates once again this week but, from the perspective of EMs, the most striking thing remains how few central banks have followed in the Fed’s footsteps. As our... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb) & Current Account (Q4 2017) Weaker South African inflation (which slowed to 4.0% y/y in February) will add to calls for an interest rate cut this month. But we think that pending VAT hikes and a widening current account deficit... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q4) The 1.0% q/q rise in ABS house prices in the fourth quarter overstates the health of the market at the end of last year and the more up-to-date CoreLogic data show that prices stagnated in the first... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Robust trade growth to support oil demand Despite the risk of further protectionist measures by President Trump and retaliation by China and the EU, we think that growth in world trade is likely to remain strong this year, which should help... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Easing cycle restarts, CBK mute on lending cap Today’s rate cut will be followed by another cut later this year. The pace of further easing will depend on when the government amends or abandons its controversial cap on lending rates. 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chilean GDP growth in Q4 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. Today’s data support our... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed in January, and since then survey indicators of export orders have weakened slightly. Nevertheless, we think that the euro-zone’s trade surplus... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0: what to look out for Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in yesterday’s presidential election has barely caused a ripple in local markets. The focus will now turn to the appointment of a new cabinet, which may provide... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New PBOC chief a safe choice but his hands are tied After 15 years at the helm of the People’s Bank, Zhou Xiaochuan is passing the title of governor to his protégé Yi Gang, a technocrat with two decades of experience at the central bank. Yi has been a... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the green economy drive the next commodity super-cycle? Commodity prices tend to go through extended boom and bust periods, sometimes known as super-cycles. The presence of super-cycles in commodity prices matters for a number of reasons but most... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflation outturns weak The latest inflation data in the Nordic countries and Switzerland have generally been quite weak. Indeed, inflation in Switzerland slowed to a five-month low of 0.6% in February. The core rate was... 16th March 2018 · 2 mins read
