China Chart Pack China facing mounting tariff threat The trade sanctions announced so far this year by the Trump administration on solar panels, washing machines, steel and aluminium have been inconsequential from China’s perspective: the US last year... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update S&P 500’s valuation is unlikely to cause its demise We think that the outlook for the US stock market is bleak. But unlike some who share this opinion, our pessimism is not rooted in a belief that the market is grossly overvalued and will inevitably... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US tariffs unnerve metals markets Commodity prices have rebounded, after slumping in the wake of the global equity sell-off in late January, although they have dipped a bit lately, despite dollar weakness. The agriculture index has... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed stepping up the pace of policy tightening The rebound in inflation, rapid employment growth and the recently announced boost to Federal spending for the next two years should convince the Fed to raise rates by 25bp at Jerome Powell’s first... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another rise in US production drove crude stocks higher last week, despite lower net imports and a rebound in demand from refineries. Surging oil supply from the US is a key reason why we expect oil... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a parallel currency the answer to Italy’s problems? Introducing a parallel currency could help to stimulate Italy’s economy by providing a fiscal boost and leading to an improvement in competitiveness. That said, despite some of the eurosceptic parties... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Only tentative signs of higher inflation We expect the inflation rate in the G7 economies to average less than 2% this year and next. This is partly because average earnings growth has remained weaker than might have been expected given the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sell-off in gilts abates The sell-off in gilts, which saw the 10-year yield rise from 1.2% at the end of 2017 to a peak of close to 1.7% by mid-February has abated. The benchmark yield is now back around 1.5%. Indeed, the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) There was another significant rise in OPEC’s forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018, reflecting recent strong growth in the OECD. However, the cartel still expects the market to be in a deficit this... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Labour shortages won’t prompt surge in wage growth Labour shortages are a growing problem in parts of the euro-zone and are likely to persist due to mismatches of skills and barriers to relocation. But given the degree of labour market slack in the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Warning signs start to flash in Turkey’s economy The sheer pace of growth in Turkey looks increasingly like a cause for concern and there is mounting evidence that the economy is now overheating. Previous such episodes of overheating have been... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m drop in headline retail sales in February was partly driven by weakness in autos and a price-related drop back in gasoline sales, but underlying sales were nevertheless subdued and... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) The renewed decline in house prices in February suggests that the housing market is in a price correction. Tougher mortgage rules and recent increases in interest rates have negatively impacted home... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Production (Jan.) & Employment (Q4) January’s fall in euro-zone industrial production marked a weak start to 2018, but much of the decline was due to temporary weather effects. The business surveys suggest that once this volatility... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Feb.) Investment activity in the UK commercial property market softened sharply in February. Yet, the total was not unusually weak for the time of year and, given the lumpy nature of property investment, it... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
