India Economics Update Trade deficit stabilises as protectionist clouds gather India is one of many economies facing a more protectionist stance from the US. Its dependence on exports to the US is low though, an inadvertent positive stemming from its failure to develop a world... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC still on track for May hike With no Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled in April, its meeting on 22nd March will be the last opportunity for the MPC to lay the groundwork for another interest rate hike in May... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus will prompt more monetary tightening With the benefits of the fiscal stimulus, strong global demand and the weaker dollar, we expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2018. As the fiscal stimulus begins to wear off and the cumulative... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What is the rise in the LIBOR-OIS spread really telling us? 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household deleveraging likely to restrain growth The small income-driven decline in the household debt-to-income ratio in the fourth quarter of 2017 provides a glimmer of hope that the economy might be able to successfully grow its way out of debt... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) Data released today showed that Sri Lanka’s economy grew at is slowest pace in 16 years in 2017. Growth should rebound in 2018 but is likely to remain weak by past standards. 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: London market set for downturn Conditions in London’s housing market are deteriorating – buyer demand is weakening, rents are falling and housing transactions continue to soften. With prices very high and signs that landlords in... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Irish GDP (Q4) Ireland’s GDP had another very strong year in 2017. While that tells us little about actual economic activity taking place in the country, other more reliable indicators suggest that the economy... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update The future of solar is not paved with silver The solar industry has been the fastest growing source of demand for silver in recent years. While we expect photovoltaic capacity to continue to increase at a fast pace over the next decade, we think... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How strong is alternative property investment? Expressed as a share of total commercial property investment, deals involving alternative assets accounted for almost £1 in every £6 invested last year, a record high. Yet leaving student housing or... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Credit spreads likely to rise again before long Emerging market (EM) credit spreads have stabilised recently after a slight pick-up in early February on the back of the sell-off in global equity markets. But this may just be a temporary respite. In... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank edging towards tighter policy Following the recent reduction in its inflation target, the Norges Bank now clearly expects to begin raising interest rates this year. However, we think that it will tighten monetary policy more... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to lag ECB in policy normalisation Despite sounding a slightly more positive tone on the economy, the Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for February, of 1.4% y/y, means that the MPC is likely to stick to its dovish tone in the very near-term. However, we still think that price pressures... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Risk of a step change in policy when Orr takes the helm The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at Grant Spencer’s final meeting as Governor on Thursday 22nd March and it’s likely to reiterate that... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4) The economy failed to regain any momentum at the end 2017 with the production measure of GDP rising by a fairly subdued 0.6% q/q in the fourth quarter, as it did in the third. Looking ahead, we expect... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
