Asia Economics Weekly What impact will tariffs on China have on the rest of Asia? Donald Trump’s plans for a 25% tariff on up to $60bn of Chinese imports are unlikely to have much impact on the rest of Asia. However, as the market reaction today highlights, the threat of a further... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Escaping demographic destiny The conventional wisdom is that population ageing results in a falling savings rate and rising interest rates. Yet Japan, despite the high average age of its population, runs a sizeable current... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Recovery gathering momentum Recently-released GDP figures show that growth strengthened in both Nigeria and South Africa in Q4. The pickup in growth in Nigeria was mostly due to stronger activity in the non-oil sector, which... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Export subsidies to remain in place for some time There has been much focus over the past month on the shift towards greater trade protectionism by the US, and yet arguably the most significant development from India’s perspective was the action by... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Record run of job growth won’t be sustained Following a surprisingly strong 2017, the Australian labour market has started 2018 on a firm footing and business surveys suggest that employment growth will continue to climb in the coming months... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big a deal are the China tariffs? The tariffs on Chinese imports outlined by President Donald Trump today won’t have a huge impact on the economy even if implemented in full, and we suspect they will end up being watered down. But as... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can game theory tell us about OPEC’s decisions? Contrary to almost all expectations, compliance with OPEC’s output quotas has been good so far. However, game theory suggests that higher oil prices increase the pay-off from cheating on the deal... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Continued weakness on the high street February’s retail sales figures showed that spending growth has been fairly feeble so far this quarter. As such, it would now take a monthly increase in excess of 2% in March to see sales in Q1 match... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s large-scale intervention era is drawing to a close The Swiss National Bank is likely to reduce its currency interventions further over the next couple of years as other central banks start to normalise policy and the Swiss economy is better able to... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Prospects for equities poor regardless of the outlook for trade 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc’s rally looks rusty Robust demand and constrained supply have pushed the price of zinc higher over the past year. But fundamentals have deteriorated sharply in recent months and point to substantially lower prices ahead. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira highlights Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has steadied in recent days, but the sharp decline seen earlier this month has reinforced concerns about the risks posed by the widening current account deficit. If the government... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets appear... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Mar.) Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, slipped at the end of the first quarter. But they still support our view that GDP in advanced economies will expand by a decent 2½% or so this year. 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold shrugs off Fed rate hike Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold gained 1.4% following the Fed’s decision to hike US interest rates for the sixth time in this tightening cycle. However, we think that the recent rally... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Major central banks in no hurry to follow Fed The US Fed’s decision to increase rates by 25bp yesterday and to raise its projection of future rate hikes has limited implications for the rest of the world. Other than the Bank of England, most... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
